Motagua 0-4 Real Espana — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Honduras - National League Apertura, 7 Oct 2024

📅07/10/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.64
Draw
24%
3.64
Away
20%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.95
Over 2.5
53%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.81
No
48%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
34%
4-5 Goals
28%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
5%
1/X
9%
X/1
19%
X/2
7%
X/X
7%
2/1
11%
2/2
8%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
57%
-0.2pp
24%
Draw
24%
-0.3pp
20%
Away Win
19%
+0.5pp
47%
Under 2.5
48%
-1.0pp
53%
Over 2.5
52%
+1.0pp
52%
BTTS Yes
51%
+0.8pp
48%
BTTS No
49%
-0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Motagua EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Real Espana EU Bookmakers 22%
-1% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -21%
1.74/0.91 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.69/1.66
-2% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -39% / +0%
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
380 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 284 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Motagua
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Real Espana
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 14
7 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 9
1 Yellow Cards 2
04.08.2024 Real Espana Real Espana 1-0 HT 1-0 Motagua Motagua HON
11.04.2024 Motagua Motagua 1-1 HT 1-1 Real Espana Real Espana HON
28.01.2024 Real Espana Real Espana 3-1 HT 2-1 Motagua Motagua HON
29.10.2023 Motagua Motagua 4-1 HT 2-0 Real Espana Real Espana HON
04.09.2023 Real Espana Real Espana 3-3 HT 1-2 Motagua Motagua HON
05.03.2023 Real Espana Real Espana 0-3 HT 0-2 Motagua Motagua HON
POST-MATCH Motagua vs Real Espana
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Real Espana swept aside Motagua 4-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

This one beat our numbers. Motagua carried 56% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Motagua and 1.50 for Real Espana.

What was the final score of Motagua vs Real Espana?

Motagua 0-4 Real Espana in the Honduras - National League Apertura on 07/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Motagua vs Real Espana?

Before kick-off our model rated a Motagua win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Motagua 56%, draw 24%, Real Espana 20%. The final score 0-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Motagua), BTTS Yes went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Motagua) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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