Sportivo Ameliano 1-0 Nacional Asuncion — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Paraguay - Profesyonel League, 7 Oct 2024

📅07/10/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
2.67
Draw
40%
2.88
Away
31%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
66%
1.45
Over 2.5
34%
2.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
2.13
No
60%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
41%
2-3 Goals
36%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
1/2
8%
1/X
6%
X/1
12%
X/2
5%
X/X
26%
2/1
8%
2/2
18%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
34%
-5.1pp
40%
Draw
31%
+8.8pp
31%
Away Win
35%
-3.7pp
66%
Under 2.5
65%
+0.8pp
34%
Over 2.5
35%
-0.8pp
40%
BTTS Yes
43%
-2.6pp
60%
BTTS No
57%
+2.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sportivo Ameliano EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Nacional Asuncion EU Bookmakers 38%
+6% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / -1%
1.15/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.17/0.98
-3% / +16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / +23%
53% Ball Possession 47%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
370 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 261 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.0
Crosses 13.0
2.2 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sportivo Ameliano
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Nacional Asuncion
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 3
04.08.2024 Nacional Asuncion Nacional Asuncion 0-0 HT 0-0 Sportivo Ameliano Sportivo Ameliano PAR
06.04.2024 Nacional Asuncion Nacional Asuncion 1-1 HT 1-1 Sportivo Ameliano Sportivo Ameliano PAR
20.01.2024 Sportivo Ameliano Sportivo Ameliano 1-0 HT 0-0 Nacional Asuncion Nacional Asuncion PAR
29.10.2023 Nacional Asuncion Nacional Asuncion 2-1 HT 2-0 Sportivo Ameliano Sportivo Ameliano PAR
12.08.2023 Sportivo Ameliano Sportivo Ameliano 2-0 HT 1-0 Nacional Asuncion Nacional Asuncion PAR
06.05.2023 Nacional Asuncion Nacional Asuncion 1-0 HT 1-0 Sportivo Ameliano Sportivo Ameliano PAR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sportivo Ameliano
1-0
AWAY Nacional Asuncion
41% Ball Possession 59%
9 Total Shots 5
4 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Sportivo Ameliano vs Nacional Asuncion
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sportivo Ameliano edged past Nacional Asuncion 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (29% / 40% / 31%) promised a tight game; Sportivo Ameliano found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (66%), no to both teams scoring (60%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Sportivo Ameliano had 41% of the ball to Nacional Asuncion's 59%, shots finished 9-5.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Sportivo Ameliano and 0.67 for Nacional Asuncion.

What was the final score of Sportivo Ameliano vs Nacional Asuncion?

Sportivo Ameliano 1-0 Nacional Asuncion in the Paraguay - Profesyonel League on 07/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sportivo Ameliano vs Nacional Asuncion?

Before kick-off our model rated a draw the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Sportivo Ameliano 29%, draw 40%, Nacional Asuncion 31%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Draw) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Draw) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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