Venados 3-4 Celaya — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera A, 7 Nov 2024

Venados
3-4 HT 1-1
Celaya
📅07/11/2024 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Mexico - Primera A – 2024/2025

Venados vs Celaya Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.18
Draw
35%
3.28
Away
23%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.86
Over 2.5
48%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.73
No
42%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
27%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
19%
X/2
9%
X/X
20%
2/1
7%
2/2
9%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
42%
-0.3pp
35%
Draw
27%
+8.0pp
23%
Away Win
31%
-7.7pp
52%
Under 2.5
50%
+2.4pp
48%
Over 2.5
50%
-2.4pp
58%
BTTS Yes
54%
+3.8pp
42%
BTTS No
46%
-3.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Venados v Celaya — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Venados EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Celaya EU Bookmakers 34%
+10% / +27% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -11%
1.58/0.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.98/1.13
+16% / +19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -17% / +16%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
312 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 334 · 78%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards 2.0

Venados vs Celaya Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Venados
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Celaya
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
The Meetings
10.08.2024 Venados Venados 1-1 HT 0-1 Celaya Celaya MEK2
06.03.2024 Celaya Celaya 0-2 HT 0-0 Venados Venados MEK2
17.09.2023 Venados Venados 1-0 HT 0-0 Celaya Celaya MEK2
26.03.2023 Celaya Celaya 2-1 HT 0-1 Venados Venados MEK2
15.07.2022 Venados Venados 3-2 HT 2-1 Celaya Celaya MEK2
14.04.2022 Celaya Celaya 1-0 HT 0-0 Venados Venados MEK2
POST-MATCH Venados vs Celaya
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Celaya edged past Venados 4-3 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Venados at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (58%) came in.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Venados had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Venados and 1.00 for Celaya.

What was the final score of Venados vs Celaya?

Venados 3-4 Celaya in the Mexico - Primera A on 07/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Venados vs Celaya?

Before kick-off our model rated a Venados win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Venados 42%, draw 35%, Celaya 23%. The final score 3-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Venados), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Venados) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
MEK2 More Mexico - Primera A
7 Nov 2024
06:05 Mineros de Zacatecas vs Leones Negros Udeg Analysis →