Ceara 1-1 Fortaleza — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 7 Nov 2025

Ceara
1-1 HT 0-1
Fortaleza
📅07/11/2025 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Brazil - Serie A – 2025

Ceara vs Fortaleza Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.19
Draw
30%
2.94
Away
31%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.6
Over 2.5
40%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.9
No
52%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
35%
2.5
2-3 Goals
42%
1.75
4-5 Goals
16%
4.46
6+ Goals
7%
24.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.5 — our 35% vs market 33.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
3.27
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
5%
12.9
X/1
9%
5.0
X/2
14%
6.72
X/X
16%
3.82
2/1
8%
30.5
2/2
12%
5.18
2/X
9%
13.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
42%
-2.7pp
30%
Draw
30%
+0.1pp
31%
Away Win
28%
+2.7pp
60%
Under 2.5
59%
+1.0pp
40%
Over 2.5
41%
-1.0pp
48%
BTTS Yes
49%
-0.9pp
52%
BTTS No
51%
+0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Ceara v Fortaleza — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ceara EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Fortaleza EU Bookmakers 32%
-2% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -12%
1.24/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/1.63
-19% / +16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / -24%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
333 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 324 · 78%
20.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.6
24.1 Crosses 18.1
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.5

Ceara vs Fortaleza Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ceara
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Fortaleza
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
175 Passes 308
65% Pass Accuracy 77%
4 Yellow Cards 4
The Meetings
14.07.2025 Fortaleza Fortaleza 0-1 HT 0-0 Ceara Ceara BR1
08.04.2023 Ceara Ceara 2-2 HT 2-1 Fortaleza Fortaleza BRCAE1
01.04.2023 Fortaleza Fortaleza 2-1 HT 1-0 Ceara Ceara BRCAE1
30.03.2023 Fortaleza Fortaleza 2-3 HT 1-2 Ceara Ceara BRCDN
06.03.2023 Ceara Ceara 2-0 HT 2-0 Fortaleza Fortaleza BRCDN
08.02.2023 Ceara Ceara 2-1 HT 2-0 Fortaleza Fortaleza BRCAE1

Ceara 1-1 Fortaleza — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ceara
1-1
AWAY Fortaleza
0.74 xG 0.44
62% Ball Possession 38%
13 Total Shots 7
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
333 Passes 183
85% Pass Accuracy 75%
21 Box Touches 9
22 Crosses 11
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Ceara vs Fortaleza
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ceara and Fortaleza couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match split (39% / 30% / 31%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (60%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Ceara had 62% of the ball to Fortaleza's 38%, shots finished 13-7, expected goals 0.74 to 0.44.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Ceara had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Ceara and 1.17 for Fortaleza.

What was the final score of Ceara vs Fortaleza?

Ceara 1-1 Fortaleza in the Brazil - Serie A on 07/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ceara vs Fortaleza?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ceara win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Ceara 39%, draw 30%, Fortaleza 31%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Ceara), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Ceara) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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