Estoril vs Arouca Prediction — Model Probabilities
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Estoril v Arouca — Team-Based Signals
Estoril vs Arouca Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Estoril 4-3 Arouca — Actual Match Statistics
Estoril edged past Arouca 4-3. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
As we said in the preview, our model had Estoril as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 4-3 landed on that lead. We had also flagged both teams to score (55%), and that read landed as well.
On the day, Estoril had 46% of the ball to Arouca's 54%, shots finished 19-10, expected goals 2.06 to 1.13.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Arouca led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Estoril and 1.67 for Arouca.
What was the final score of Estoril vs Arouca?
Estoril 4-3 Arouca in the Portugal - Premier League on 07/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Estoril vs Arouca?
Before kick-off our model rated a Estoril win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Estoril 54%, draw 23%, Arouca 23%. The final score 4-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Estoril), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.