Arouca vs Estoril Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Arouca v Estoril — Team-Based Signals
Arouca vs Estoril Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
4-3
HT 1-1
Estoril
POR
2-0
HT 0-0
Arouca
POR
2-0
HT 1-0
Estoril
POR
1-2
HT 1-0
Arouca
POR
Arouca 1-1 Estoril — Actual Match Statistics
Arouca and Estoril couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.
Our pre-match lean was Arouca at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.
On the day, Arouca had 36% of the ball to Estoril's 64%, shots finished 3-12, expected goals 0.92 to 2.23.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Arouca had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Arouca and 1.83 for Estoril.
What was the final score of Arouca vs Estoril?
Arouca 1-1 Estoril in the Portugal - Premier League on 16/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Arouca vs Estoril?
Before kick-off our model rated a Arouca win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Arouca 42%, draw 27%, Estoril 30%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Arouca), BTTS No went the other way.