Rio Ave 2-3 Benfica — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 16 Mar 2025

📅16/03/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-3 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
19%
7.18
Draw
22%
4.81
Away
59%
1.33
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.43
Over 2.5
59%
1.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.85
No
45%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
4.89
2-3 Goals
37%
1.93
4-5 Goals
29%
2.66
6+ Goals
13%
6.76
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
14.95
1/2 EV+ ✗
9%
20.8
1/X
7%
23.0
X/1
6%
18.0
X/2
16%
3.86
X/X
8%
7.95
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
33%
1.51
2/X
7%
19.8
Value flag · 1/2 at 20.8 — our 9% vs market 2.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★★ Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
19%
Home Win
11%
+8.3pp
22%
Draw
18%
+4.1pp
59%
Away Win
71%
-12.3pp
41%
Under 2.5
38%
+3.1pp
59%
Over 2.5
62%
-3.1pp
55%
BTTS Yes
50%
+5.0pp
45%
BTTS No
50%
-5.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Rio Ave EU Bookmakers 14%
Head to Head
AWAY Benfica EU Bookmakers 75%
+6% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -26%
0.88/1.94 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.90/0.87
+39% / +16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / -4%
38% Ball Possession 62%
9 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
233 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 431 · 83%
13.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 29.8
12.1 Crosses 20.4
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Rio Ave
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Benfica
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.83
1.15 xG 2.31
42% Ball Possession 59%
9 Total Shots 20
3 Shots on Target 9
3 Corners 7
335 Passes 502
82% Pass Accuracy 86%
10 Box Touches 38
13 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
27.10.2024 Benfica Benfica 5-0 HT 3-0 Rio Ave Rio Ave POR
17.05.2024 Rio Ave Rio Ave 1-1 HT 0-1 Benfica Benfica POR
14.01.2024 Benfica Benfica 4-1 HT 1-1 Rio Ave Rio Ave POR
02.04.2023 Rio Ave Rio Ave 0-1 HT 0-0 Benfica Benfica POR
08.10.2022 Benfica Benfica 4-2 HT 3-1 Rio Ave Rio Ave POR
01.03.2021 Benfica Benfica 2-0 HT 0-0 Rio Ave Rio Ave POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Rio Ave
2-3
AWAY Benfica
1.29 xG 4.79
40% Ball Possession 60%
7 Total Shots 20
2 Shots on Target 8
3 Corners 11
250 Passes 387
80% Pass Accuracy 84%
8 Box Touches 33
9 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Rio Ave vs Benfica
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Benfica nicked a narrow win over Rio Ave 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Benfica as the likeliest winner at 59%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Rio Ave had 40% of the ball to Benfica's 60%, shots finished 7-20, expected goals 1.29 to 4.79 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Benfica's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Benfica led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Rio Ave and 2.83 for Benfica.

What was the final score of Rio Ave vs Benfica?

Rio Ave 2-3 Benfica in the Portugal - Premier League on 16/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Rio Ave vs Benfica?

Before kick-off our model rated an Benfica win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Rio Ave 19%, draw 22%, Benfica 59%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Benfica), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Benfica) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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