Rio Ave vs Benfica Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Rio Ave v Benfica — Team-Based Signals
Rio Ave vs Benfica Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
0-1
HT 0-0
Benfica
POR
4-2
HT 3-1
Rio Ave
POR
2-0
HT 0-0
Rio Ave
POR
Rio Ave 2-3 Benfica — Actual Match Statistics
Benfica nicked a narrow win over Rio Ave 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Benfica as the likeliest winner at 59%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (55%), and both reads landed as well.
On the day, Rio Ave had 40% of the ball to Benfica's 60%, shots finished 7-20, expected goals 1.29 to 4.79 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Benfica's control.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Benfica led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Rio Ave and 2.83 for Benfica.
What was the final score of Rio Ave vs Benfica?
Rio Ave 2-3 Benfica in the Portugal - Premier League on 16/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Rio Ave vs Benfica?
Before kick-off our model rated an Benfica win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Rio Ave 19%, draw 22%, Benfica 59%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Benfica), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.