Vitoria Guimaraes 2-0 Estrela — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 16 Mar 2025

📅16/03/2025 · 🕒23:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.61
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
22%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.6
Over 2.5
41%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
2.27
No
61%
1.56
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
37%
2.44
2-3 Goals
38%
1.74
4-5 Goals
17%
4.55
6+ Goals
8%
25.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.44 — our 37% vs market 33.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.06
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
16.85
X/1
25%
3.76
X/2
6%
11.05
X/X
13%
4.42
2/1
5%
28.5
2/2
11%
10.3
2/X
5%
19.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
58%
-4.5pp
24%
Draw
25%
-0.8pp
22%
Away Win
17%
+5.3pp
59%
Under 2.5
59%
+0.8pp
41%
Over 2.5
41%
-0.8pp
39%
BTTS Yes
40%
-1.2pp
61%
BTTS No
60%
+1.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vitoria Guimaraes EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Estrela EU Bookmakers 20%
+0% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -10%
1.59/0.83 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.65/1.24
+0% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -68% / +29%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
329 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 299 · 76%
24.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.0
24.6 Crosses 15.7
1.9 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vitoria Guimaraes
2W-1D-0L
AWAY Estrela
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.30 xG 0.72
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 6
4 Shots on Target 1
7 Corners 4
354 Passes 278
81% Pass Accuracy 73%
20 Box Touches 12
19 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
27.10.2024 Estrela Estrela 2-2 HT 1-1 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
21.01.2024 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 3-0 HT 1-0 Estrela Estrela POR
13.08.2023 Estrela Estrela 0-1 HT 0-1 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vitoria Guimaraes
2-0
AWAY Estrela
1.20 xG 0.41
61% Ball Possession 39%
12 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 0
8 Corners 2
507 Passes 293
87% Pass Accuracy 79%
16 Box Touches 14
16 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Vitoria Guimaraes vs Estrela
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vitoria Guimaraes saw off Estrela 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Vitoria Guimaraes as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (61%) came in.

On the day, Vitoria Guimaraes had 61% of the ball to Estrela's 39%, shots finished 12-9, expected goals 1.20 to 0.41.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Vitoria Guimaraes had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Vitoria Guimaraes and 0.67 for Estrela.

What was the final score of Vitoria Guimaraes vs Estrela?

Vitoria Guimaraes 2-0 Estrela in the Portugal - Premier League on 16/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vitoria Guimaraes vs Estrela?

Before kick-off our model rated a Vitoria Guimaraes win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Vitoria Guimaraes 54%, draw 24%, Estrela 22%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Vitoria Guimaraes), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Vitoria Guimaraes) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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