Estrela 2-2 Vitoria Guimaraes — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 27 Oct 2024

📅27/10/2024 · 🕒23:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
4.13
Draw
22%
3.35
Away
46%
1.74
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.62
Over 2.5
39%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
2.09
No
61%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
37%
2.54
2-3 Goals
38%
1.77
4-5 Goals
17%
4.65
6+ Goals
8%
25.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.54 — our 37% vs market 33.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
7.84
1/2
9%
28.5
1/X
5%
16.65
X/1
11%
9.0
X/2
12%
3.79
X/X
13%
4.21
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
25%
2.35
2/X
5%
15.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
21%
+11.4pp
22%
Draw
26%
-4.0pp
46%
Away Win
53%
-7.4pp
61%
Under 2.5
58%
+3.2pp
39%
Over 2.5
42%
-3.2pp
39%
BTTS Yes
44%
-4.9pp
61%
BTTS No
56%
+4.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Estrela EU Bookmakers 24%
Head to Head
AWAY Vitoria Guimaraes EU Bookmakers 57%
+15% / +15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +1%
1.33/2.32 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.57/1.00
+109% / -31% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -35% / +15%
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
281 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 318 · 77%
14.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.3
11.6 Crosses 28.7
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Estrela
0W-0D-2L
AWAY Vitoria Guimaraes
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.40 xG 1.20
50% Ball Possession 50%
6 Total Shots 12
0 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 9
323 Passes 348
75% Pass Accuracy 80%
11 Box Touches 18
19 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
21.01.2024 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 3-0 HT 1-0 Estrela Estrela POR
13.08.2023 Estrela Estrela 0-1 HT 0-1 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Estrela
2-2
AWAY Vitoria Guimaraes
1.38 xG 1.51
39% Ball Possession 61%
7 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 4
189 Passes 366
68% Pass Accuracy 83%
14 Box Touches 24
11 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Estrela vs Vitoria Guimaraes
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Estrela and Vitoria Guimaraes couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Vitoria Guimaraes at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (61%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Estrela had 39% of the ball to Vitoria Guimaraes's 61%, shots finished 7-10, expected goals 1.38 to 1.51.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Vitoria Guimaraes led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 0.00 goals for Estrela and 2.00 for Vitoria Guimaraes.

What was the final score of Estrela vs Vitoria Guimaraes?

Estrela 2-2 Vitoria Guimaraes in the Portugal - Premier League on 27/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Estrela vs Vitoria Guimaraes?

Before kick-off our model rated an Vitoria Guimaraes win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Estrela 32%, draw 22%, Vitoria Guimaraes 46%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Vitoria Guimaraes) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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