Sporting Braga 2-0 Farense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 27 Oct 2024

📅27/10/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.34
Draw
26%
4.62
Away
16%
6.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.18
Over 2.5
51%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.96
No
54%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
4.25
2-3 Goals
39%
1.87
4-5 Goals
25%
3.0
6+ Goals
10%
9.18
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.25 — our 26% vs market 18.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
1.59
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
5%
21.0
X/1
19%
3.45
X/2
8%
17.0
X/X
15%
7.06
2/1
6%
22.7
2/2
4%
13.6
2/X
6%
21.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
70%
-12.1pp
26%
Draw
18%
+7.6pp
16%
Away Win
12%
+4.6pp
49%
Under 2.5
42%
+6.9pp
51%
Over 2.5
58%
-6.9pp
46%
BTTS Yes
47%
-0.5pp
54%
BTTS No
53%
+0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sporting Braga EU Bookmakers 75%
Head to Head
AWAY Farense EU Bookmakers 15%
+2% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +1%
2.13/0.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.99/2.67
-12% / -23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +61% / +28%
57% Ball Possession 43%
17 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
425 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 261 · 73%
31.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.6
24.7 Crosses 14.4
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sporting Braga
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Farense
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
2.43 xG 1.68
62% Ball Possession 38%
17 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
430 Passes 212
82% Pass Accuracy 70%
35 Box Touches 16
29 Crosses 16
4 Yellow Cards 2
18.02.2024 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga 2-1 HT 0-0 Farense Farense POR
16.09.2023 Farense Farense 3-1 HT 2-0 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga POR
05.04.2021 Farense Farense 1-2 HT 1-1 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga POR
29.11.2020 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga 1-0 HT 0-0 Farense Farense POR
22.11.2015 Farense Farense 0-0 HT 0-0 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga POK
27.01.2002 Farense Farense 2-2 HT 2-0 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sporting Braga
2-0
AWAY Farense
2.90 xG 0.18
72% Ball Possession 28%
18 Total Shots 4
6 Shots on Target 2
10 Corners 3
573 Passes 183
86% Pass Accuracy 72%
43 Box Touches 7
31 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Sporting Braga vs Farense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sporting Braga got the better of Farense 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Sporting Braga as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Sporting Braga had 72% of the ball to Farense's 28%, shots finished 18-4, expected goals 2.90 to 0.18.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sporting Braga had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Sporting Braga and 1.17 for Farense.

What was the final score of Sporting Braga vs Farense?

Sporting Braga 2-0 Farense in the Portugal - Premier League on 27/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sporting Braga vs Farense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sporting Braga win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Sporting Braga 58%, draw 26%, Farense 16%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sporting Braga), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Sporting Braga) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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