Nacional vs Casa Pia Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Nacional v Casa Pia — Team-Based Signals
Nacional vs Casa Pia Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
0-0
HT 0-0
Casa Pia
POK
2-1
HT 0-1
Nacional
PORLC
2-5
HT 0-1
Nacional
POK
1-0
HT 1-0
Nacional
POR2
1-2
HT 0-0
Casa Pia
POR2
Nacional 3-1 Casa Pia — Actual Match Statistics
Nacional got the better of Casa Pia 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.
We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 28% / 34% — and on the day Nacional made the difference.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.
On the day, Nacional had 45% of the ball to Casa Pia's 55%, shots finished 14-10, expected goals 1.18 to 1.06.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Casa Pia led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Nacional and 1.33 for Casa Pia.
What was the final score of Nacional vs Casa Pia?
Nacional 3-1 Casa Pia in the Portugal - Premier League on 16/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Nacional vs Casa Pia?
Before kick-off our model rated a Nacional win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Nacional 39%, draw 28%, Casa Pia 34%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Nacional) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.