Estoril vs Arouca Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Estoril v Arouca — Team-Based Signals
Estoril vs Arouca Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
4-3
HT 1-1
Estoril
POR
2-0
HT 0-0
Arouca
POR
2-0
HT 1-0
Estoril
POR
1-2
HT 1-0
Arouca
POR
0-2
HT 0-1
Estoril
POR
Estoril 4-1 Arouca — Actual Match Statistics
Estoril swept aside Arouca 4-1. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 26% / 40% — and on the day Estoril made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Estoril had 34% of the ball to Arouca's 66%, shots finished 12-13, expected goals 2.23 to 1.69.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Arouca led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Estoril and 1.67 for Arouca.
What was the final score of Estoril vs Arouca?
Estoril 4-1 Arouca in the Portugal - Premier League on 26/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Estoril vs Arouca?
Before kick-off our model rated an Arouca win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Estoril 35%, draw 26%, Arouca 40%. The final score 4-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.