Leeds United 2-0 Derby County — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 7 Dec 2024

Leeds United
2-0 HT 2-0
Derby County
📅07/12/2024 · 🕒15:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-0 ✓
England - Championship – 2025/2026

Leeds United vs Derby County Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.42
Draw
27%
4.19
Away
15%
6.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.8
Over 2.5
44%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
2.29
No
61%
1.55
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.1
2-3 Goals
42%
1.8
4-5 Goals
21%
3.86
6+ Goals
8%
16.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.1 — our 29% vs market 27.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
35%
1.87
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
9%
24.7
X/1
15%
3.69
X/2
6%
17.85
X/X
11%
6.5
2/1
7%
31.0
2/2
5%
16.05
2/X
7%
26.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
67%
-9.1pp
27%
Draw
21%
+6.2pp
15%
Away Win
12%
+2.9pp
56%
Under 2.5
52%
+4.3pp
44%
Over 2.5
48%
-4.3pp
39%
BTTS Yes
40%
-0.8pp
61%
BTTS No
60%
+0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Leeds United v Derby County — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Leeds United EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Derby County EU Bookmakers 15%
-5% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +5%
1.90/0.68 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.61/1.47
-3% / +24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / +38%
59% Ball Possession 41%
15 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 3
384 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 233 · 68%
33.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.3
21.1 Crosses 13.9
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.0

Leeds United vs Derby County Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Leeds United
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Derby County
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.89 xG 0.83
58% Ball Possession 42%
17 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
370 Passes 245
78% Pass Accuracy 70%
26 Box Touches 16
23 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 4
The Meetings
19.07.2020 Derby County Derby County 1-3 HT 0-0 Leeds United Leeds United İNCL
21.09.2019 Leeds United Leeds United 1-1 HT 1-0 Derby County Derby County İNCL
15.05.2019 Leeds United Leeds United 2-4 HT 1-1 Derby County Derby County İNCL
11.05.2019 Derby County Derby County 0-1 HT 0-0 Leeds United Leeds United İNCL
11.01.2019 Leeds United Leeds United 2-0 HT 1-0 Derby County Derby County İNCL
11.08.2018 Derby County Derby County 1-4 HT 1-2 Leeds United Leeds United İNCL

Leeds United 2-0 Derby County — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Leeds United
2-0
AWAY Derby County
1.26 xG 0.24
63% Ball Possession 37%
18 Total Shots 3
6 Shots on Target 1
10 Corners 2
484 Passes 265
87% Pass Accuracy 79%
25 Box Touches 6
31 Crosses 7
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Leeds United vs Derby County
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Leeds United beat Derby County 2-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Leeds United as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (61%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Leeds United had 63% of the ball to Derby County's 37%, shots finished 18-3, expected goals 1.26 to 0.24.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Leeds United had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Leeds United and 1.17 for Derby County.

What was the final score of Leeds United vs Derby County?

Leeds United 2-0 Derby County in the England - Championship on 07/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Leeds United vs Derby County?

Before kick-off our model rated a Leeds United win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Leeds United 57%, draw 27%, Derby County 15%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Leeds United), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Leeds United) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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