Sunderland 2-1 Stoke City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 7 Dec 2024

📅07/12/2024 · 🕒15:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.72
Draw
24%
3.64
Away
23%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.95
Over 2.5
48%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.76
No
52%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.63
2-3 Goals
43%
1.83
4-5 Goals
21%
3.38
6+ Goals
9%
12.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.63 — our 27% vs market 22.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
2.41
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
16.45
X/1
17%
4.52
X/2
7%
10.7
X/X
11%
5.79
2/1
8%
26.5
2/2
11%
8.14
2/X
7%
17.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
54%
-1.6pp
24%
Draw
24%
-0.2pp
23%
Away Win
21%
+1.8pp
52%
Under 2.5
48%
+4.0pp
48%
Over 2.5
52%
-4.0pp
48%
BTTS Yes
53%
-5.2pp
52%
BTTS No
47%
+5.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sunderland EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Stoke City EU Bookmakers 24%
-6% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +12%
1.61/0.90 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.20/1.54
-1% / -20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / +24%
56% Ball Possession 44%
18 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
370 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 271 · 73%
27.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.8
16.4 Crosses 17.8
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sunderland
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Stoke City
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.29 xG 1.27
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 5
295 Passes 332
75% Pass Accuracy 78%
20 Box Touches 23
14 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 3
27.01.2024 Sunderland Sunderland 3-1 HT 1-0 Stoke City Stoke City İNCL
21.10.2023 Stoke City Stoke City 2-1 HT 1-1 Sunderland Sunderland İNCL
04.03.2023 Sunderland Sunderland 1-5 HT 0-1 Stoke City Stoke City İNCL
20.08.2022 Stoke City Stoke City 0-1 HT 0-1 Sunderland Sunderland İNCL
14.01.2017 Sunderland Sunderland 1-3 HT 1-3 Stoke City Stoke City İNP
15.10.2016 Stoke City Stoke City 2-0 HT 2-0 Sunderland Sunderland İNP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sunderland
2-1
AWAY Stoke City
2.40 xG 1.01
45% Ball Possession 55%
24 Total Shots 10
10 Shots on Target 2
9 Corners 4
296 Passes 316
79% Pass Accuracy 78%
48 Box Touches 26
22 Crosses 16
POST-MATCH Sunderland vs Stoke City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sunderland squeezed past Stoke City 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Sunderland as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Sunderland had 45% of the ball to Stoke City's 55%, shots finished 24-10, expected goals 2.40 to 1.01 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Sunderland's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Stoke City led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Sunderland and 2.17 for Stoke City.

What was the final score of Sunderland vs Stoke City?

Sunderland 2-1 Stoke City in the England - Championship on 07/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sunderland vs Stoke City?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sunderland win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Sunderland 53%, draw 24%, Stoke City 23%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sunderland) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Sunderland) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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