Sunderland vs Stoke City Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Sunderland v Stoke City — Team-Based Signals
Sunderland vs Stoke City Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
2-1
HT 1-1
Sunderland
İNCL
1-5
HT 0-1
Stoke City
İNCL
0-1
HT 0-1
Sunderland
İNCL
1-3
HT 1-3
Stoke City
İNP
2-0
HT 2-0
Sunderland
İNP
Sunderland 2-1 Stoke City — Actual Match Statistics
Sunderland squeezed past Stoke City 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
As we said in the preview, our model had Sunderland as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.
On the day, Sunderland had 45% of the ball to Stoke City's 55%, shots finished 24-10, expected goals 2.40 to 1.01 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Sunderland's control.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Stoke City led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Sunderland and 2.17 for Stoke City.
What was the final score of Sunderland vs Stoke City?
Sunderland 2-1 Stoke City in the England - Championship on 07/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Sunderland vs Stoke City?
Before kick-off our model rated a Sunderland win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Sunderland 53%, draw 24%, Stoke City 23%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sunderland) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.