Luton Town 1-1 Swansea City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 7 Dec 2024

Luton Town
1-1 HT 1-0
Swansea City
📅07/12/2024 · 🕒18:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
England - Championship – 2025/2026

Luton Town vs Swansea City Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.25
Draw
26%
3.18
Away
33%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.78
Over 2.5
44%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.76
No
53%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.08
2-3 Goals
40%
1.8
4-5 Goals
21%
3.88
6+ Goals
9%
17.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.08 — our 30% vs market 27.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.65
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
9%
14.7
X/1
16%
5.6
X/2
9%
6.93
X/X
11%
4.81
2/1
8%
32.0
2/2
18%
4.95
2/X
6%
14.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
41%
+0.1pp
26%
Draw
28%
-2.0pp
33%
Away Win
31%
+1.9pp
56%
Under 2.5
52%
+3.8pp
44%
Over 2.5
48%
-3.8pp
47%
BTTS Yes
53%
-6.0pp
53%
BTTS No
47%
+6.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Luton Town v Swansea City — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Luton Town EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Swansea City EU Bookmakers 34%
+1% / +16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +18%
1.38/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.19/1.43
+4% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +22% / +7%
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
278 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 384 · 79%
23.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.9
25.5 Crosses 16.1
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.0

Luton Town vs Swansea City Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Luton Town
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Swansea City
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.65 xG 1.12
39% Ball Possession 61%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
217 Passes 385
67% Pass Accuracy 76%
20 Box Touches 20
17 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
04.03.2023 Luton Town Luton Town 1-0 HT 1-0 Swansea City Swansea City İNCL
20.08.2022 Swansea City Swansea City 0-2 HT 0-1 Luton Town Luton Town İNCL
01.02.2022 Swansea City Swansea City 0-1 HT 0-0 Luton Town Luton Town İNCL
18.09.2021 Luton Town Luton Town 3-3 HT 3-0 Swansea City Swansea City İNCL
13.03.2021 Luton Town Luton Town 0-1 HT 0-1 Swansea City Swansea City İNCL
05.12.2020 Swansea City Swansea City 2-0 HT 1-0 Luton Town Luton Town İNCL

Luton Town 1-1 Swansea City — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Luton Town
1-1
AWAY Swansea City
1.16 xG 2.23
35% Ball Possession 65%
8 Total Shots 20
2 Shots on Target 10
5 Corners 8
175 Passes 415
65% Pass Accuracy 81%
25 Box Touches 26
19 Crosses 25
POST-MATCH Luton Town vs Swansea City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Luton Town and Swansea City couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Luton Town at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (56%) came in.

On the day, Luton Town had 35% of the ball to Swansea City's 65%, shots finished 8-20, expected goals 1.16 to 2.23.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Luton Town had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Luton Town and 1.00 for Swansea City.

What was the final score of Luton Town vs Swansea City?

Luton Town 1-1 Swansea City in the England - Championship on 07/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Luton Town vs Swansea City?

Before kick-off our model rated a Luton Town win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Luton Town 41%, draw 26%, Swansea City 33%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Luton Town), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Luton Town) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İNCL More England - Championship
7 Dec 2024
15:30 Sheffield Wednesday vs Preston North End Analysis →
15:30 Sunderland vs Stoke City Analysis →
15:30 Leeds United vs Derby County Analysis →
18:00 Queens Park Rangers vs Norwich City Analysis →
18:00 Millwall vs Coventry Analysis →
18:00 Hull City vs Blackburn Rovers Analysis →