Aston Villa 1-0 Southampton — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 7 Dec 2024

Aston Villa
1-0 HT 1-0
Southampton
📅07/12/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
England - Premier League – 2025/2026

Aston Villa vs Southampton Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.33
Draw
23%
4.81
Away
22%
6.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.43
Over 2.5
56%
1.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.82
No
48%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
5.14
2-3 Goals
38%
1.98
4-5 Goals
27%
2.78
6+ Goals
14%
7.19
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1.68
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
24.3
X/1
17%
4.04
X/2
6%
20.7
X/X
6%
8.98
2/1
7%
25.0
2/2
10%
15.5
2/X EV+ ✗
11%
24.7
Value flag · 2/X at 24.7 — our 11% vs market 2.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
71%
-15.5pp
23%
Draw
18%
+5.4pp
22%
Away Win
12%
+10.1pp
44%
Under 2.5
38%
+6.0pp
56%
Over 2.5
62%
-6.0pp
52%
BTTS Yes
51%
+0.9pp
48%
BTTS No
49%
-0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Aston Villa v Southampton — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Aston Villa EU Bookmakers 75%
Head to Head
AWAY Southampton EU Bookmakers 15%
+7% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +5%
2.15/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.97/2.01
+13% / -21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / -4%
59% Ball Possession 41%
16 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 4
418 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 268 · 73%
34.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.8
19.3 Crosses 14.0
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.5

Aston Villa vs Southampton Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Aston Villa
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Southampton
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.47 xG 0.90
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
298 Passes 322
75% Pass Accuracy 77%
25 Box Touches 19
18 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
21.01.2023 Southampton Southampton 0-1 HT 0-0 Aston Villa Aston Villa İNP
16.09.2022 Aston Villa Aston Villa 1-0 HT 1-0 Southampton Southampton İNP
05.03.2022 Aston Villa Aston Villa 4-0 HT 2-0 Southampton Southampton İNP
05.11.2021 Southampton Southampton 1-0 HT 1-0 Aston Villa Aston Villa İNP
30.01.2021 Southampton Southampton 0-1 HT 0-1 Aston Villa Aston Villa İNP
01.11.2020 Aston Villa Aston Villa 3-4 HT 0-3 Southampton Southampton İNP

Aston Villa 1-0 Southampton — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Aston Villa
1-0
AWAY Southampton
2.29 xG 0.33
47% Ball Possession 53%
18 Total Shots 4
5 Shots on Target 0
14 Corners 1
363 Passes 438
86% Pass Accuracy 89%
40 Box Touches 23
25 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Aston Villa vs Southampton
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Aston Villa squeezed past Southampton 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Aston Villa as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Aston Villa had 47% of the ball to Southampton's 53%, shots finished 18-4, expected goals 2.29 to 0.33 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Aston Villa's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Aston Villa had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Aston Villa and 0.83 for Southampton.

What was the final score of Aston Villa vs Southampton?

Aston Villa 1-0 Southampton in the England - Premier League on 07/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Aston Villa vs Southampton?

Before kick-off our model rated a Aston Villa win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Aston Villa 55%, draw 23%, Southampton 22%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Aston Villa) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Aston Villa) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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İNP More England - Premier League
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