Manchester United 2-3 Nottingham Forest — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 7 Dec 2024

Manchester United
2-3 HT 1-1
Nottingham Forest
📅07/12/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
England - Premier League – 2025/2026

Manchester United vs Nottingham Forest Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.64
Draw
26%
3.72
Away
26%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.97
Over 2.5
50%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.76
No
53%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.64
2-3 Goals
39%
1.83
4-5 Goals
25%
3.38
6+ Goals
9%
12.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.64 — our 27% vs market 22.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.36
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
17.05
X/1
19%
4.42
X/2
8%
10.95
X/X
12%
5.96
2/1
7%
26.0
2/2
12%
8.42
2/X
6%
17.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
57%
-8.3pp
26%
Draw
24%
+2.2pp
26%
Away Win
20%
+6.0pp
50%
Under 2.5
47%
+3.4pp
50%
Over 2.5
53%
-3.4pp
47%
BTTS Yes
53%
-5.4pp
53%
BTTS No
47%
+5.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Manchester United v Nottingham Forest — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Manchester United EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Nottingham Forest EU Bookmakers 23%
+1% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -12% / -15%
1.90/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.12/1.39
-8% / +34% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -18% / -15%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
428 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 322 · 77%
33.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.8
17.7 Crosses 13.1
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.4

Manchester United vs Nottingham Forest Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Manchester United
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Nottingham Forest
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
2.24 xG 0.82
65% Ball Possession 35%
16 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
497 Passes 221
86% Pass Accuracy 72%
34 Box Touches 18
18 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
28.02.2024 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest 0-1 HT 0-0 Manchester United Manchester United FAK
30.12.2023 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest 2-1 HT 0-0 Manchester United Manchester United İNP
26.08.2023 Manchester United Manchester United 3-2 HT 1-2 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest İNP
16.04.2023 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest 0-2 HT 0-1 Manchester United Manchester United İNP
01.02.2023 Manchester United Manchester United 2-0 HT 0-0 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest İNLK
25.01.2023 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest 0-3 HT 0-2 Manchester United Manchester United İNLK

Manchester United 2-3 Nottingham Forest — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Manchester United
2-3
AWAY Nottingham Forest
1.60 xG 0.83
71% Ball Possession 29%
17 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
528 Passes 158
88% Pass Accuracy 65%
31 Box Touches 16
23 Crosses 7
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Manchester United vs Nottingham Forest
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nottingham Forest edged past Manchester United 3-2 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Manchester United at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Manchester United had 71% of the ball to Nottingham Forest's 29%, shots finished 17-11, expected goals 1.60 to 0.83 — on chances, Manchester United could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Manchester United had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Manchester United and 0.67 for Nottingham Forest.

What was the final score of Manchester United vs Nottingham Forest?

Manchester United 2-3 Nottingham Forest in the England - Premier League on 07/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Manchester United vs Nottingham Forest?

Before kick-off our model rated a Manchester United win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Manchester United 48%, draw 26%, Nottingham Forest 26%. The final score 2-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Manchester United) ✗ BTTS No
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