Brentford 4-2 Newcastle United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 7 Dec 2024

Brentford
4-2 HT 2-2
Newcastle United
📅07/12/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
England - Premier League – 2025/2026

Brentford vs Newcastle United Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.67
Draw
23%
3.45
Away
37%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.29
Over 2.5
55%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.5
No
44%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
4.75
2-3 Goals
37%
1.93
4-5 Goals
26%
2.88
6+ Goals
12%
8.03
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
4.49
1/2
6%
26.5
1/X
6%
14.25
X/1 EV+ ✓
18%
7.3
X/2
11%
5.96
X/X
7%
6.06
2/1
6%
31.0
2/2
20%
3.38
2/X
9%
14.05
Value flag · X/1 at 7.3 — our 18% vs market 11.4%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
34%
+6.9pp
23%
Draw
26%
-2.9pp
37%
Away Win
41%
-4.1pp
45%
Under 2.5
40%
+5.1pp
55%
Over 2.5
60%
-5.1pp
56%
BTTS Yes
62%
-6.7pp
44%
BTTS No
38%
+6.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Brentford v Newcastle United — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Brentford EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Newcastle United EU Bookmakers 45%
-4% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -9%
1.32/1.61 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.76/1.45
+5% / -19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +24% / -22%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
298 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 352 · 78%
22.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.0
19.4 Crosses 15.8
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.9

Brentford vs Newcastle United Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Brentford
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Newcastle United
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.83
1.10 xG 2.00
45% Ball Possession 55%
9 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
255 Passes 336
74% Pass Accuracy 79%
20 Box Touches 29
17 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
19.05.2024 Brentford Brentford 2-4 HT 0-3 Newcastle United Newcastle United İNP
16.09.2023 Newcastle United Newcastle United 1-0 HT 0-0 Brentford Brentford İNP
08.04.2023 Brentford Brentford 1-2 HT 1-0 Newcastle United Newcastle United İNP
08.10.2022 Newcastle United Newcastle United 5-1 HT 2-0 Brentford Brentford İNP
26.02.2022 Brentford Brentford 0-2 HT 0-2 Newcastle United Newcastle United İNP
20.11.2021 Newcastle United Newcastle United 3-3 HT 2-2 Brentford Brentford İNP

Brentford 4-2 Newcastle United — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Brentford
4-2
AWAY Newcastle United
1.23 xG 1.48
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 16
8 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 4
317 Passes 428
80% Pass Accuracy 87%
26 Box Touches 40
15 Crosses 24
3 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Brentford vs Newcastle United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Brentford beat Newcastle United 4-2. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (41% / 23% / 37%) promised a tight game; Brentford found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (56%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Brentford had 44% of the ball to Newcastle United's 56%, shots finished 11-16, expected goals 1.23 to 1.48.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Newcastle United led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Brentford and 2.83 for Newcastle United.

What was the final score of Brentford vs Newcastle United?

Brentford 4-2 Newcastle United in the England - Premier League on 07/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Brentford vs Newcastle United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Brentford win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Brentford 41%, draw 23%, Newcastle United 37%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Brentford), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Brentford) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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İNP More England - Premier League
7 Dec 2024
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