Auckland 2-1 Wellington Phoenix — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 7 Dec 2024

Auckland
2-1 HT 1-0
Wellington Phoenix
📅07/12/2024 · 🕒07:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Australia - A-League – 2025/2026

Auckland vs Wellington Phoenix Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
1.75
Draw
30%
3.35
Away
29%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.74
Over 2.5
46%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.95
No
50%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.93
2-3 Goals
38%
1.79
4-5 Goals
23%
4.07
6+ Goals
9%
18.9
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.52
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X EV+ ✗
9%
16.7
X/1
16%
4.42
X/2
11%
10.5
X/X
14%
5.01
2/1
6%
30.0
2/2
12%
8.61
2/X
7%
17.75
Value flag · 1/X at 16.7 — our 9% vs market 4.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
53%
-11.7pp
30%
Draw
27%
+3.3pp
29%
Away Win
20%
+8.5pp
54%
Under 2.5
54%
+0.2pp
46%
Over 2.5
46%
-0.2pp
50%
BTTS Yes
47%
+2.4pp
50%
BTTS No
53%
-2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Auckland v Wellington Phoenix — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Auckland EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Wellington Phoenix EU Bookmakers 23%
+22% / +22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +7%
2.00/0.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.95/1.57
-2% / – Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -24% / +17%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
406 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 348 · 80%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.8
– Crosses 13.7
– Yellow Cards 2.1

Auckland vs Wellington Phoenix Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Auckland
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Wellington Phoenix
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
2.40 xG 0.83
50% Ball Possession 50%
18 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 2
389 Passes 387
86% Pass Accuracy 82%
29 Box Touches 13
25 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 0
The Meetings
02.11.2024 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix 0-2 HT 0-0 Auckland Auckland AVUS

Auckland 2-1 Wellington Phoenix — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Auckland
2-1
AWAY Wellington Phoenix
1.03 xG 1.08
50% Ball Possession 50%
20 Total Shots 6
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
330 Passes 313
79% Pass Accuracy 73%
38 Box Touches 17
20 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Auckland vs Wellington Phoenix
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Auckland nicked a narrow win over Wellington Phoenix 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Auckland as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Auckland had 50% of the ball to Wellington Phoenix's 50%, shots finished 20-6, expected goals 1.03 to 1.08.

What was the final score of Auckland vs Wellington Phoenix?

Auckland 2-1 Wellington Phoenix in the Australia - A-League on 07/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Auckland vs Wellington Phoenix?

Before kick-off our model rated a Auckland win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Auckland 42%, draw 30%, Wellington Phoenix 29%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Auckland) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Auckland) ✗ Under 2.5
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