Botev Vratsa 2-3 Cherno More Varna — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Bulgaria - 1st Division, 7 Dec 2024

📅07/12/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
18%
5.4
Draw
29%
3.8
Away
53%
1.52
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.74
Over 2.5
41%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.16
No
57%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
6%
1/2
9%
1/X
6%
X/1
8%
X/2
13%
X/X
14%
2/1
5%
2/2
31%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
18%
Home Win
16%
+2.9pp
28%
Draw
23%
+5.5pp
53%
Away Win
62%
-8.4pp
59%
Under 2.5
54%
+5.6pp
41%
Over 2.5
46%
-5.6pp
43%
BTTS Yes
42%
+0.4pp
57%
BTTS No
58%
-0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Botev Vratsa EU Bookmakers 18%
Head to Head
AWAY Cherno More Varna EU Bookmakers 66%
-16% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -23% / -23%
1.08/2.30 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.91/0.94
+35% / -37% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -49% / -14%
44% Ball Possession 56%
8 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
234 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 410 · 82%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
0.8 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Botev Vratsa
0W-0D-3L
AWAY Cherno More Varna
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
35% Ball Possession 65%
6 Total Shots 16
2 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 5
4 Yellow Cards 2
12.08.2024 Cherno More Varna Cherno More Varna 2-1 HT 1-1 Botev Vratsa Botev Vratsa BUL1
01.03.2024 Cherno More Varna Cherno More Varna 2-1 HT 1-0 Botev Vratsa Botev Vratsa BUL1
01.09.2023 Botev Vratsa Botev Vratsa 0-1 HT 0-0 Cherno More Varna Cherno More Varna BUL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Botev Vratsa
2-3
AWAY Cherno More Varna
40% Ball Possession 60%
9 Total Shots 19
4 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 7
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Botev Vratsa vs Cherno More Varna
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cherno More Varna edged past Botev Vratsa 3-2 away from home. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Cherno More Varna as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Botev Vratsa had 40% of the ball to Cherno More Varna's 60%, shots finished 9-19.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Cherno More Varna led the recent series with 3 wins. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Botev Vratsa and 1.67 for Cherno More Varna.

What was the final score of Botev Vratsa vs Cherno More Varna?

Botev Vratsa 2-3 Cherno More Varna in the Bulgaria - 1st Division on 07/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Botev Vratsa vs Cherno More Varna?

Before kick-off our model rated an Cherno More Varna win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Botev Vratsa 18%, draw 28%, Cherno More Varna 53%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Cherno More Varna) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Cherno More Varna) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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BUL1 More Bulgaria - 1st Division
7 Dec 2024
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