Widzew Lodz 2-1 Stal Mielec — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 7 Dec 2024

📅07/12/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.02
Draw
30%
3.35
Away
29%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
55%
2.0
Over
45%
1.77
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.61
No
51%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1
27%
3.83
2-3
42%
1.84
4-5
22%
3.27
6+
9%
11.3
Value flag · 0-1 at 3.83 — our 27% vs market 21.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.86
1/2
5%
33.5
1/X
7%
12.95
X/1
10%
4.84
X/2
9%
7.08
X/X
15%
4.97
2/1
7%
24.3
2/2
15%
4.89
2/X
8%
13.25
STRENGTH — green bars inside a box show the pattern support behind that selection, from Good · Strong · Very strong to Great — the deeper the historical record, the fuller the bar; informational, not a sized bet.
EV — the best model-vs-price gap in that group: the market pays more than our probability implies. After full time the tag settles to / . Informational, not a validated tip — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik model signals — not real match figures
HOME Widzew Lodz The Market 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Stal Mielec The Market 32%
Average Season vs Marketall history · vs bookmaker expectation Average
Weak Recent Form vs Marketlatest matches · vs bookmaker expectation Average
1.38 Expected Goals Scoredper match · higher is better 1.18
1.19 Expected Goals Concededper match · lower is better 1.22
Weak Attackvs comparable teams Weak
Average Defensevs comparable teams Great
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
356 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 278 · 77%
21.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.6
23.3 Crosses 17.0
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Widzew Lodz
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Stal Mielec
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.01 xG 0.83
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
352 Passes 323
80% Pass Accuracy 77%
23 Box Touches 14
24 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
22.07.2024 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec 1-1 HT 1-0 Widzew Lodz Widzew Lodz POL
13.04.2024 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec 0-0 HT 0-0 Widzew Lodz Widzew Lodz POL
06.12.2023 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec 1-2 HT 0-1 Widzew Lodz Widzew Lodz POLK
07.10.2023 Widzew Lodz Widzew Lodz 1-0 HT 0-0 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec POL
08.04.2023 Widzew Lodz Widzew Lodz 0-2 HT 0-1 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec POL
17.09.2022 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec 0-3 HT 0-0 Widzew Lodz Widzew Lodz POL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Widzew Lodz
2-1
AWAY Stal Mielec
1.01 xG 1.63
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 10
326 Passes 326
81% Pass Accuracy 81%
21 Box Touches 24
20 Crosses 26
2 Yellow Cards 2
REVIEW Widzew Lodz vs Stal Mielec
IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

Widzew Lodz found just enough to beat Stal Mielec 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Widzew Lodz as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The one blemish: under 2.5 goals (55%) never looked like landing.

By the numbers, Widzew Lodz had 49% of the ball to Stal Mielec's 51%, shots finished 13-15, expected goals 1.01 to 1.63 — the balance of chances actually favoured Stal Mielec.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Widzew Lodz had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Widzew Lodz and 0.67 for Stal Mielec.

Widzew Lodz vs Stal Mielec Result & Final Score

Widzew Lodz 2-1 Stal Mielec in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 07/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

Widzew Lodz vs Stal Mielec Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated a Widzew Lodz win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Widzew Lodz 41%, draw 30%, Stal Mielec 29%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Widzew Lodz) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Widzew Lodz) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
POL More Poland - Ekstraklasa
7 Dec 2024
16:45 Lechia Gdansk vs Slask Wroclaw Analysis →
22:15 Rakow Czestochowa vs Motor Lublin Analysis →