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Melbourne City (K) vs Wellington Phoenix (K) Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Melbourne City (K) v Wellington Phoenix (K) — Team-Based Signals
Melbourne City (K) vs Wellington Phoenix (K) Head-to-Head — Last 3 Meetings
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Melbourne City (K) 1-0 Wellington Phoenix (K) — Actual Match Statistics
Melbourne City (K) squeezed past Wellington Phoenix (K) 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
Just as the model leaned, our model had Melbourne City (K) as the likeliest winner at 61%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.
On the day, Melbourne City (K) had 61% of the ball to Wellington Phoenix (K)'s 39%, shots finished 3-9, expected goals 0.92 to 0.83.
Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Melbourne City (K) had the better of it with 3 wins. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Melbourne City (K) and 0.67 for Wellington Phoenix (K).
What was the final score of Melbourne City (K) vs Wellington Phoenix (K)?
Melbourne City (K) 1-0 Wellington Phoenix (K) in the Australia - W-League on 07/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Melbourne City (K) vs Wellington Phoenix (K)?
Before kick-off our model rated a Melbourne City (K) win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split Melbourne City (K) 61%, draw 20%, Wellington Phoenix (K) 19%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Melbourne City (K)) — while Over 2.5 went the other way.