Sturm Graz 2-1 Grazer AK — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Austria - Bundesliga, 7 Dec 2025

Sturm Graz
2-1 HT 1-0
Grazer AK
📅07/12/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Austria - Bundesliga – 2025/2026

Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.86
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
28%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.67
Over 2.5
42%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.96
No
55%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
35%
2.63
2-3 Goals
40%
1.76
4-5 Goals
18%
4.31
6+ Goals
7%
21.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.63 — our 35% vs market 31.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.57
1/2
7%
35.0
1/X
5%
14.6
X/1
17%
4.28
X/2
7%
8.25
X/X
17%
4.33
2/1
8%
27.5
2/2
13%
6.99
2/X
6%
15.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
50%
-5.5pp
28%
Draw
27%
+0.9pp
28%
Away Win
23%
+4.6pp
58%
Under 2.5
56%
+1.5pp
42%
Over 2.5
44%
-1.5pp
45%
BTTS Yes
47%
-1.4pp
55%
BTTS No
53%
+1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Sturm Graz v Grazer AK — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sturm Graz EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Grazer AK EU Bookmakers 26%
+0% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +6%
1.87/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.17/1.56
+2% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / -3%
57% Ball Possession 43%
12 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
336 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 242 · 72%
26.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.0
21.7 Crosses 12.9
1.3 Yellow Cards 2.3

Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sturm Graz
6W-0D-0L
AWAY Grazer AK
2.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.68 xG 0.88
65% Ball Possession 35%
18 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
328 Passes 186
78% Pass Accuracy 68%
16 Box Touches 15
14 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
30.08.2025 Grazer AK Grazer AK 0-3 HT 0-1 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU
09.03.2025 Grazer AK Grazer AK 1-2 HT 0-0 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU
19.10.2024 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 5-2 Grazer AK Grazer AK AVU
02.11.2023 Grazer AK Grazer AK 2-3 HT 2-1 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AUK
19.10.2022 Grazer AK Grazer AK 0-1 HT 0-0 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AUK
18.03.2007 Grazer AK Grazer AK 0-2 HT 0-1 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU

Sturm Graz 2-1 Grazer AK — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sturm Graz
2-1
AWAY Grazer AK
1.70 xG 1.65
46% Ball Possession 54%
15 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 5
191 Passes 237
65% Pass Accuracy 66%
46 Box Touches 15
24 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sturm Graz nicked a narrow win over Grazer AK 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Sturm Graz as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Sturm Graz had 46% of the ball to Grazer AK's 54%, shots finished 15-8, expected goals 1.70 to 1.65.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sturm Graz had the better of it with 6 wins. Those games averaged 2.67 goals for Sturm Graz and 0.83 for Grazer AK.

What was the final score of Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK?

Sturm Graz 2-1 Grazer AK in the Austria - Bundesliga on 07/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sturm Graz win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Sturm Graz 44%, draw 28%, Grazer AK 28%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sturm Graz) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Sturm Graz) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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