Grazer AK 0-3 Sturm Graz — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Austria - Bundesliga, 30 Aug 2025

Grazer AK
0-3 HT 0-1
Sturm Graz
📅30/08/2025 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Austria - Bundesliga – 2025/2026

Grazer AK vs Sturm Graz Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
20%
4.48
Draw
24%
3.8
Away
56%
1.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.07
Over 2.5
54%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.75
No
46%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
3.95
2-3 Goals
41%
1.85
4-5 Goals
21%
3.14
6+ Goals
10%
10.3
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
7.9
1/2 EV+ ✗
8%
21.1
1/X
6%
16.25
X/1
6%
10.1
X/2
17%
4.12
X/X
12%
5.71
2/1
4%
34.5
2/2
31%
2.02
2/X
7%
14.6
Value flag · 1/2 at 21.1 — our 8% vs market 2.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
20%
Home Win
19%
+0.5pp
25%
Draw
23%
+1.5pp
56%
Away Win
58%
-2.0pp
46%
Under 2.5
44%
+2.1pp
54%
Over 2.5
56%
-2.1pp
54%
BTTS Yes
53%
+0.7pp
46%
BTTS No
47%
-0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Grazer AK v Sturm Graz — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Grazer AK EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Sturm Graz EU Bookmakers 62%
+6% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +21%
1.02/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.84/1.00
+15% / +21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +25% / +66%
43% Ball Possession 57%
9 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
275 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 377 · 79%
15.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.4
14.2 Crosses 18.9
3.4 Yellow Cards 1.9

Grazer AK vs Sturm Graz Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Grazer AK
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Sturm Graz
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
0.83 xG 1.23
32% Ball Possession 68%
9 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Target 8
2 Corners 6
127 Passes 387
60% Pass Accuracy 80%
10 Box Touches 16
10 Crosses 18
4 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
09.03.2025 Grazer AK Grazer AK 1-2 HT 0-0 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU
19.10.2024 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 5-2 Grazer AK Grazer AK AVU
02.11.2023 Grazer AK Grazer AK 2-3 HT 2-1 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AUK
19.10.2022 Grazer AK Grazer AK 0-1 HT 0-0 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AUK
18.03.2007 Grazer AK Grazer AK 0-2 HT 0-1 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU
11.11.2006 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 0-2 HT 0-0 Grazer AK Grazer AK AVU

Grazer AK 0-3 Sturm Graz — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Grazer AK
0-3
AWAY Sturm Graz
0.93 xG 2.12
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 15
2 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 4
244 Passes 268
76% Pass Accuracy 75%
20 Box Touches 15
18 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Grazer AK vs Sturm Graz
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sturm Graz ran out comfortable winners over Grazer AK 3-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Sturm Graz as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Grazer AK had 48% of the ball to Sturm Graz's 52%, shots finished 11-15, expected goals 0.93 to 2.12.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sturm Graz led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Grazer AK and 2.17 for Sturm Graz.

What was the final score of Grazer AK vs Sturm Graz?

Grazer AK 0-3 Sturm Graz in the Austria - Bundesliga on 30/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Grazer AK vs Sturm Graz?

Before kick-off our model rated an Sturm Graz win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Grazer AK 20%, draw 25%, Sturm Graz 56%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sturm Graz), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Sturm Graz) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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