Grazer AK 1-2 Sturm Graz — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Austria - Bundesliga, 9 Mar 2025

Grazer AK
1-2 HT 0-0
Sturm Graz
📅09/03/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Austria - Bundesliga – 2024/2025

Grazer AK vs Sturm Graz Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
4.13
Draw
23%
3.64
Away
44%
1.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.97
Over 2.5
49%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.75
No
52%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
3.72
2-3 Goals
44%
1.84
4-5 Goals
22%
3.31
6+ Goals
9%
11.65
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.72 — our 25% vs market 21.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
7.89
1/2
12%
22.55
1/X
6%
15.6
X/1
12%
10.0
X/2
14%
4.26
X/X
11%
5.28
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
17%
2.12
2/X
7%
13.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
21%
+11.9pp
23%
Draw
24%
-0.7pp
44%
Away Win
55%
-11.2pp
51%
Under 2.5
47%
+3.8pp
49%
Over 2.5
53%
-3.8pp
48%
BTTS Yes
53%
-5.0pp
52%
BTTS No
47%
+5.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Grazer AK v Sturm Graz — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Grazer AK EU Bookmakers 24%
Head to Head
AWAY Sturm Graz EU Bookmakers 59%
-22% / -22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +20%
0.69/0.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.71/1.06
+18% / -15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +30% / +31%
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
247 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 334 · 76%
15.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.7
17.5 Crosses 19.2
4.0 Yellow Cards 1.9

Grazer AK vs Sturm Graz Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Grazer AK
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Sturm Graz
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
33% Ball Possession 67%
9 Total Shots 21
5 Shots on Target 8
2 Corners 6
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
19.10.2024 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 5-2 Grazer AK Grazer AK AVU
02.11.2023 Grazer AK Grazer AK 2-3 HT 2-1 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AUK
19.10.2022 Grazer AK Grazer AK 0-1 HT 0-0 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AUK
18.03.2007 Grazer AK Grazer AK 0-2 HT 0-1 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU
11.11.2006 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 0-2 HT 0-0 Grazer AK Grazer AK AVU
26.08.2006 Grazer AK Grazer AK 0-0 HT 0-0 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU

Grazer AK 1-2 Sturm Graz — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Grazer AK
1-2
AWAY Sturm Graz
0.83 xG 1.23
31% Ball Possession 69%
11 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 6
127 Passes 387
60% Pass Accuracy 80%
10 Box Touches 16
10 Crosses 18
5 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Grazer AK vs Sturm Graz
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sturm Graz edged past Grazer AK 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Sturm Graz as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Grazer AK had 31% of the ball to Sturm Graz's 69%, shots finished 11-10, expected goals 0.83 to 1.23.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sturm Graz led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Grazer AK and 1.83 for Sturm Graz.

What was the final score of Grazer AK vs Sturm Graz?

Grazer AK 1-2 Sturm Graz in the Austria - Bundesliga on 09/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Grazer AK vs Sturm Graz?

Before kick-off our model rated an Sturm Graz win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Grazer AK 33%, draw 23%, Sturm Graz 44%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sturm Graz) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Sturm Graz) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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