Chaves 2-0 Paços De Ferreira — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 7 Dec 2025

📅07/12/2025 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.61
Draw
24%
3.64
Away
20%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.75
Over 2.5
42%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.99
No
58%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
34%
2.83
2-3 Goals
39%
1.74
4-5 Goals
19%
3.81
6+ Goals
8%
17.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.83 — our 34% vs market 28.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1/2
4%
1/X
5%
X/1
17%
X/2
7%
X/X
14%
2/1
7%
2/2
9%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
58%
-2.2pp
24%
Draw
24%
+0.2pp
20%
Away Win
18%
+2.0pp
58%
Under 2.5
53%
+4.8pp
42%
Over 2.5
47%
-4.8pp
42%
BTTS Yes
46%
-4.3pp
58%
BTTS No
54%
+4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Chaves EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Paços De Ferreira EU Bookmakers 21%
-6% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -9%
1.62/0.92 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.87/1.81
-10% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -36% / +10%
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
307 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 292 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
19.5 Crosses 17.2
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Chaves
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Paços De Ferreira
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.90 xG 1.42
56% Ball Possession 44%
12 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 7
332 Passes 236
80% Pass Accuracy 75%
20 Box Touches 18
22 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 3
30.03.2025 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira 2-0 HT 0-0 Chaves Chaves POR2
02.11.2024 Chaves Chaves 2-1 HT 1-1 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira POR2
13.05.2023 Chaves Chaves 2-0 HT 0-0 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira POR
08.01.2023 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira 1-1 HT 0-0 Chaves Chaves POR
31.03.2018 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira 2-0 HT 1-0 Chaves Chaves POR
05.11.2017 Chaves Chaves 4-2 HT 1-1 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Chaves
2-0
AWAY Paços De Ferreira
1.63 xG 1.07
47% Ball Possession 53%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 6
249 Passes 286
79% Pass Accuracy 81%
8 Crosses 17
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Chaves vs Paços De Ferreira
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Chaves beat Paços De Ferreira 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Chaves as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (58%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Chaves had 47% of the ball to Paços De Ferreira's 53%, shots finished 15-10, expected goals 1.63 to 1.07.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Chaves had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Chaves and 1.33 for Paços De Ferreira.

What was the final score of Chaves vs Paços De Ferreira?

Chaves 2-0 Paços De Ferreira in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 07/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Chaves vs Paços De Ferreira?

Before kick-off our model rated a Chaves win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Chaves 56%, draw 24%, Paços De Ferreira 20%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Chaves), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Chaves) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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