Paços De Ferreira 2-0 Chaves — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 30 Mar 2025

Paços De Ferreira
2-0 HT 0-0
Chaves
📅30/03/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Portugal - 2nd Division – 2024/2025

Paços De Ferreira vs Chaves Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.84
Draw
25%
3.28
Away
40%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.8
Over 2.5
45%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.75
No
53%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
2.99
2-3 Goals
41%
1.75
4-5 Goals
19%
3.61
6+ Goals
10%
15.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.99 — our 30% vs market 26.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
12%
X/2
16%
X/X
9%
2/1
7%
2/2
18%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
32%
+3.1pp
25%
Draw
27%
-2.0pp
40%
Away Win
41%
-1.1pp
55%
Under 2.5
52%
+3.0pp
45%
Over 2.5
48%
-3.0pp
47%
BTTS Yes
53%
-6.5pp
53%
BTTS No
47%
+6.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Paços De Ferreira v Chaves — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Paços De Ferreira EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Chaves EU Bookmakers 45%
-8% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +21%
1.48/1.55 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.31/1.18
+8% / -30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / +68%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
293 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 279 · 75%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
23.2 Crosses 16.4
2.5 Yellow Cards 3.4

Paços De Ferreira vs Chaves Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Paços De Ferreira
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Chaves
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.25 xG 0.99
46% Ball Possession 54%
15 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 6
268 Passes 331
77% Pass Accuracy 80%
18 Box Touches 18
21 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
02.11.2024 Chaves Chaves 2-1 HT 1-1 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira POR2
13.05.2023 Chaves Chaves 2-0 HT 0-0 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira POR
08.01.2023 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira 1-1 HT 0-0 Chaves Chaves POR
31.03.2018 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira 2-0 HT 1-0 Chaves Chaves POR
05.11.2017 Chaves Chaves 4-2 HT 1-1 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira POR
31.03.2017 Chaves Chaves 1-0 HT 1-0 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira POR

Paços De Ferreira 2-0 Chaves — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Paços De Ferreira
2-0
AWAY Chaves
2.28 xG 0.46
43% Ball Possession 57%
19 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
200 Passes 270
75% Pass Accuracy 77%
21 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Paços De Ferreira vs Chaves
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Paços De Ferreira beat Chaves 2-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 25% / 40% — and on the day Paços De Ferreira made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, Paços De Ferreira had 43% of the ball to Chaves's 57%, shots finished 19-9, expected goals 2.28 to 0.46.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Chaves led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Paços De Ferreira and 1.67 for Chaves.

What was the final score of Paços De Ferreira vs Chaves?

Paços De Ferreira 2-0 Chaves in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 30/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Paços De Ferreira vs Chaves?

Before kick-off our model rated an Chaves win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Paços De Ferreira 35%, draw 25%, Chaves 40%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Chaves) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Chaves) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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