Athletic Bilbao 0-2 Barcelona — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Super Cup, 8 Jan 2025

Athletic Bilbao
0-2 HT 0-1
Barcelona
📅08/01/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Spain - Super Cup – 2024/2025

Athletic Bilbao vs Barcelona Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
3.87
Draw
24%
3.8
Away
41%
1.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.23
Over 2.5
55%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.6
No
46%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
4.48
2-3 Goals
39%
1.87
4-5 Goals
27%
2.78
6+ Goals
10%
7.75
Half Time / Full Time
1/1 EV+ ✗
19%
6.67
1/2
6%
20.9
1/X
7%
14.95
X/1
10%
9.59
X/2
12%
4.22
X/X
11%
6.06
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
23%
2.16
2/X
6%
14.55
Value flag · 1/1 at 6.67 — our 19% vs market 11.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
22%
+12.3pp
24%
Draw
23%
+0.9pp
42%
Away Win
55%
-13.2pp
45%
Under 2.5
41%
+3.8pp
55%
Over 2.5
59%
-3.8pp
54%
BTTS Yes
58%
-4.8pp
46%
BTTS No
42%
+4.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Athletic Bilbao v Barcelona — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Athletic Bilbao EU Bookmakers 26%
Head to Head
AWAY Barcelona EU Bookmakers 59%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +9%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
– / – Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -43% / +150%
43% Ball Possession 57%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
294 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 428 · 83%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards –

Athletic Bilbao vs Barcelona Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Athletic Bilbao
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Barcelona
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.36 xG 1.39
37% Ball Possession 63%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
267 Passes 529
77% Pass Accuracy 87%
26 Box Touches 22
20 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
24.08.2024 Barcelona Barcelona 2-1 HT 1-1 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao İS1
03.03.2024 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao 0-0 HT 0-0 Barcelona Barcelona İS1
24.01.2024 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao 4-2 HT 1-2 Barcelona Barcelona İSPK
22.10.2023 Barcelona Barcelona 1-0 HT 0-0 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao İS1
12.03.2023 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao 0-1 HT 0-1 Barcelona Barcelona İS1
23.10.2022 Barcelona Barcelona 4-0 HT 3-0 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao İS1

Athletic Bilbao 0-2 Barcelona — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Athletic Bilbao
0-2
AWAY Barcelona
0.80 xG 3.03
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 8
7 Corners 2
302 Passes 437
78% Pass Accuracy 84%
13 Box Touches 21
22 Crosses 8
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Athletic Bilbao vs Barcelona
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Barcelona got the better of Athletic Bilbao 2-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Barcelona as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Athletic Bilbao had 44% of the ball to Barcelona's 56%, shots finished 10-14, expected goals 0.80 to 3.03.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Barcelona led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Athletic Bilbao and 1.67 for Barcelona.

What was the final score of Athletic Bilbao vs Barcelona?

Athletic Bilbao 0-2 Barcelona in the Spain - Super Cup on 08/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Athletic Bilbao vs Barcelona?

Before kick-off our model rated an Barcelona win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Athletic Bilbao 35%, draw 24%, Barcelona 42%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Barcelona) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Barcelona) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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