PSV Eindhoven 1-1 Willem II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 8 Feb 2025

📅08/02/2025 · 🕒20:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
68%
1.18
Draw
16%
7.13
Away
16%
10.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
36%
2.89
Over 2.5
64%
1.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.99
No
49%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
6.42
2-3 Goals
30%
2.13
4-5 Goals
34%
2.43
6+ Goals
17%
4.85
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
34%
1.28
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
28.0
X/1
25%
3.85
X/2
5%
30.5
X/X
5%
11.15
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
22.1
2/2
6%
26.0
2/X
5%
33.0
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.1 — our 9% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
68%
Home Win
81%
-13.2pp
16%
Draw
12%
+3.8pp
17%
Away Win
7%
+9.4pp
36%
Under 2.5
31%
+4.9pp
64%
Over 2.5
69%
-4.9pp
51%
BTTS Yes
46%
+5.3pp
49%
BTTS No
54%
-5.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME PSV Eindhoven EU Bookmakers 85%
Head to Head
AWAY Willem II EU Bookmakers 9%
+3% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +3%
2.82/0.77 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.77/2.14
+23% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +43% / -5%
61% Ball Possession 39%
18 Total Shots 8
8 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 2
524 · 86% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 283 · 75%
43.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.9
25.3 Crosses 11.7
0.7 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME PSV Eindhoven
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Willem II
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.68 xG 0.66
64% Ball Possession 36%
15 Total Shots 5
6 Shots on Target 1
6 Corners 2
523 Passes 253
84% Pass Accuracy 72%
27 Box Touches 9
18 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 1
28.09.2024 Willem II Willem II 0-2 HT 0-0 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven HOL
01.05.2022 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven 4-2 HT 3-1 Willem II Willem II HOL
25.09.2021 Willem II Willem II 2-1 HT 1-1 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven HOL
09.05.2021 Willem II Willem II 0-2 HT 0-1 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven HOL
08.11.2020 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven 3-0 HT 2-0 Willem II Willem II HOL
21.08.2020 Willem II Willem II 1-1 HT 0-1 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME PSV Eindhoven
1-1
AWAY Willem II
1.26 xG 0.71
66% Ball Possession 34%
15 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 2
558 Passes 259
86% Pass Accuracy 76%
43 Box Touches 10
26 Crosses 9
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

PSV Eindhoven and Willem II couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had PSV Eindhoven at 68% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (64%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, PSV Eindhoven had 66% of the ball to Willem II's 34%, shots finished 15-8, expected goals 1.26 to 0.71.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, PSV Eindhoven had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for PSV Eindhoven and 0.83 for Willem II.

What was the final score of PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II?

PSV Eindhoven 1-1 Willem II in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 08/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II?

Before kick-off our model rated a PSV Eindhoven win the most likely single outcome at about 68%, with the full match-result split PSV Eindhoven 68%, draw 16%, Willem II 17%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (PSV Eindhoven), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (PSV Eindhoven) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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