Cerro Largo 4-1 Progreso — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uruguay - Premier League, 8 Feb 2025

📅08/02/2025 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.18
Draw
29%
2.94
Away
28%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.51
Over 2.5
38%
2.43
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
2.27
No
61%
1.56
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
37%
2-3 Goals
34%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
4%
1/X
12%
X/1
18%
X/2
11%
X/X
12%
2/1
5%
2/2
13%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
42%
+1.0pp
29%
Draw
31%
-2.3pp
28%
Away Win
27%
+1.3pp
62%
Under 2.5
62%
-0.6pp
38%
Over 2.5
38%
+0.6pp
39%
BTTS Yes
40%
-1.0pp
61%
BTTS No
60%
+1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cerro Largo EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Progreso EU Bookmakers 30%
+2% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / -9%
1.16/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.26/1.55
-3% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +27% / -22%
53% Ball Possession 47%
11 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
245 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 314 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.9 Yellow Cards 3.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cerro Largo
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Progreso
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 3
30.11.2024 Cerro Largo Cerro Largo 2-1 HT 1-0 Progreso Progreso URU
04.06.2024 Progreso Progreso 0-1 HT 0-0 Cerro Largo Cerro Largo URU
17.10.2021 Cerro Largo Cerro Largo 1-0 HT 0-0 Progreso Progreso URU
19.06.2021 Progreso Progreso 0-0 HT 0-0 Cerro Largo Cerro Largo URU
15.03.2021 Cerro Largo Cerro Largo 1-0 HT 0-0 Progreso Progreso URU
12.09.2020 Progreso Progreso 1-2 HT 1-1 Cerro Largo Cerro Largo URU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cerro Largo
4-1
AWAY Progreso
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 6
11 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 2
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Cerro Largo vs Progreso
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cerro Largo cruised past Progreso 4-1. Half-time: 3-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Cerro Largo as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (61%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Cerro Largo had 56% of the ball to Progreso's 44%, shots finished 14-6.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cerro Largo had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Cerro Largo and 0.33 for Progreso.

What was the final score of Cerro Largo vs Progreso?

Cerro Largo 4-1 Progreso in the Uruguay - Premier League on 08/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cerro Largo vs Progreso?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cerro Largo win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Cerro Largo 43%, draw 29%, Progreso 28%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Cerro Largo) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Cerro Largo) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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