Velbert 2-1 Düren Merzenich — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Regional League, 8 Mar 2024

📅08/03/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
2.94
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
45%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
39%
2.33
Over 2.5
61%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.49
No
43%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
2-3 Goals
32%
4-5 Goals
30%
6+ Goals
16%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
9%
X/2
13%
X/X
8%
2/1
7%
2/2
25%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
30%
+0.9pp
24%
Draw
25%
-0.9pp
45%
Away Win
45%
-0.1pp
39%
Under 2.5
39%
+0.1pp
61%
Over 2.5
61%
-0.1pp
57%
BTTS Yes
63%
-6.2pp
43%
BTTS No
37%
+6.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Velbert EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Düren Merzenich EU Bookmakers 49%
-10% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +24% / +24%
1.21/2.83 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.76/0.93
-13% / -46% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / +38%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
313 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 411 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.3 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Velbert
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Düren Merzenich
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 4.00
23.09.2023 Düren Merzenich Düren Merzenich 4-1 HT 3-1 Velbert Velbert ALMBÖL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Velbert
2-1
AWAY Düren Merzenich
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
4 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Velbert vs Düren Merzenich
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Velbert edged past Düren Merzenich 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Düren Merzenich at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (61%), both teams to score (57%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Velbert had 51% of the ball to Düren Merzenich's 49%, shots finished 14-11.

What was the final score of Velbert vs Düren Merzenich?

Velbert 2-1 Düren Merzenich in the Germany - Regional League on 08/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Velbert vs Düren Merzenich?

Before kick-off our model rated an Düren Merzenich win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Velbert 31%, draw 24%, Düren Merzenich 45%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Düren Merzenich) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Düren Merzenich) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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