Western United 4-1 Wellington Phoenix — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 8 Mar 2025

📅08/03/2025 · 🕒10:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.47
Draw
24%
4.34
Away
29%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.51
Over 2.5
53%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.63
No
48%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
5.08
2-3 Goals
39%
1.96
4-5 Goals
28%
2.62
6+ Goals
12%
6.41
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1.76
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
8%
15.75
X/1
10%
4.15
X/2
12%
12.7
X/X
11%
7.1
2/1
6%
19.2
2/2
11%
9.54
2/X
5%
17.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
64%
-16.3pp
24%
Draw
20%
+4.1pp
29%
Away Win
16%
+12.2pp
47%
Under 2.5
36%
+10.7pp
53%
Over 2.5
64%
-10.7pp
52%
BTTS Yes
57%
-5.2pp
48%
BTTS No
43%
+5.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Western United EU Bookmakers 68%
Head to Head
AWAY Wellington Phoenix EU Bookmakers 20%
+1% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -5%
1.89/1.34 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.21/2.07
+5% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -22% / -3%
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
399 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 361 · 81%
31.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.3
21.8 Crosses 12.1
1.0 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Western United
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Wellington Phoenix
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.07 xG 1.83
45% Ball Possession 55%
14 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 6
394 Passes 503
83% Pass Accuracy 86%
24 Box Touches 26
22 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 1
20.10.2024 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix 1-1 HT 1-0 Western United Western United AVUS
10.02.2024 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix 2-0 HT 1-0 Western United Western United AVUS
02.12.2023 Western United Western United 0-1 HT 0-0 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix AVUS
17.02.2023 Western United Western United 0-3 HT 0-1 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix AVUS
13.11.2022 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix 2-3 HT 1-0 Western United Western United AVUS
14.05.2022 Western United Western United 1-0 HT 1-0 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix AVUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Western United
4-1
AWAY Wellington Phoenix
2.89 xG 0.48
48% Ball Possession 52%
21 Total Shots 11
9 Shots on Target 1
4 Corners 2
377 Passes 417
84% Pass Accuracy 83%
39 Box Touches 14
15 Crosses 9
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Western United vs Wellington Phoenix
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Western United cruised past Wellington Phoenix 4-1. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Western United as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Western United had 48% of the ball to Wellington Phoenix's 52%, shots finished 21-11, expected goals 2.89 to 0.48.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Wellington Phoenix led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Western United and 1.50 for Wellington Phoenix.

What was the final score of Western United vs Wellington Phoenix?

Western United 4-1 Wellington Phoenix in the Australia - A-League on 08/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Western United vs Wellington Phoenix?

Before kick-off our model rated a Western United win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Western United 47%, draw 24%, Wellington Phoenix 29%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Western United), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Western United) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
AVUS More Australia - A-League
8 Mar 2025
09:00 Adelaide United vs Brisbane Roar Analysis →
11:35 Melbourne Victory vs Central Coast Mariners Analysis →