Araz Nahçıvan vs Karabağ Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Araz Nahçıvan v Karabağ — Team-Based Signals
Araz Nahçıvan vs Karabağ Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings
2-1
HT 0-0
Karabağ
AZERS
2-1
HT 1-0
Araz Nahçıvan
AZERS
Karabağ saw off Araz Nahçıvan 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
As we said in the preview, our model had Karabağ as the likeliest winner at 61%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (68%) — went the other way, though.
Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Karabağ led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Araz Nahçıvan and 2.40 for Karabağ.
What was the final score of Araz Nahçıvan vs Karabağ?
Araz Nahçıvan 1-3 Karabağ in the Azerbaijan - Super League on 08/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Araz Nahçıvan vs Karabağ?
Before kick-off our model rated an Karabağ win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split Araz Nahçıvan 17%, draw 22%, Karabağ 61%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Karabağ) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.