Fortuna Sittard 1-0 Heracles — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 8 Mar 2025

📅08/03/2025 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.18
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
31%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.91
Over 2.5
48%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.66
No
49%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
25%
3.41
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
25%
3.28
6+ Goals
11%
12.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.41 — our 25% vs market 23.2%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
3.15
1/2
5%
31.0
1/X
7%
12.45
X/1
9%
5.22
X/2
10%
6.57
X/X
13%
4.71
2/1
6%
25.0
2/2
15%
4.5
2/X
7%
12.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
42%
+0.6pp
26%
Draw
27%
-1.1pp
31%
Away Win
31%
+0.6pp
52%
Under 2.5
48%
+3.2pp
48%
Over 2.5
52%
-3.2pp
51%
BTTS Yes
56%
-5.3pp
49%
BTTS No
44%
+5.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fortuna Sittard EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Heracles EU Bookmakers 34%
-2% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -20%
1.42/1.16 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/1.48
-24% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -28% / -10%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
303 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 324 · 76%
23.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.1
21.5 Crosses 16.7
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fortuna Sittard
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Heracles
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.96 xG 1.00
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
304 Passes 326
78% Pass Accuracy 79%
20 Box Touches 19
16 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 2
07.12.2024 Heracles Heracles 2-2 HT 1-2 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard HOL
19.05.2024 Heracles Heracles 0-0 HT 0-0 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard HOL
10.11.2023 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard 4-1 HT 4-0 Heracles Heracles HOL
03.04.2022 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard 0-2 HT 0-0 Heracles Heracles HOL
20.11.2021 Heracles Heracles 3-1 HT 2-1 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard HOL
05.02.2021 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard 0-1 HT 0-1 Heracles Heracles HOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fortuna Sittard
1-0
AWAY Heracles
2.52 xG 0.19
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 5
5 Shots on Target 0
2 Corners 6
232 Passes 290
68% Pass Accuracy 76%
22 Box Touches 14
14 Crosses 23
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Fortuna Sittard vs Heracles
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fortuna Sittard squeezed past Heracles 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Fortuna Sittard as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Fortuna Sittard had 47% of the ball to Heracles's 53%, shots finished 12-5, expected goals 2.52 to 0.19 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Fortuna Sittard's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Heracles led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Fortuna Sittard and 1.50 for Heracles.

What was the final score of Fortuna Sittard vs Heracles?

Fortuna Sittard 1-0 Heracles in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 08/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fortuna Sittard vs Heracles?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fortuna Sittard win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Fortuna Sittard 43%, draw 26%, Heracles 31%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fortuna Sittard), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Fortuna Sittard) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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