PSV Eindhoven 2-1 Heerenveen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 8 Mar 2025

📅08/03/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
64%
1.27
Draw
20%
5.71
Away
16%
7.37
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
34%
3.14
Over 2.5
66%
1.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.73
No
47%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
17%
7.17
2-3 Goals
36%
2.22
4-5 Goals
31%
2.37
6+ Goals
16%
4.3
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
42%
1.37
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
6%
22.1
X/1
11%
4.0
X/2
5%
22.1
X/X
10%
10.55
2/1 EV+ ✗
11%
18.7
2/2
6%
17.25
2/X
5%
26.0
Value flag · 2/1 at 18.7 — our 11% vs market 2.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
64%
Home Win
74%
-10.6pp
20%
Draw
15%
+5.8pp
16%
Away Win
11%
+4.8pp
34%
Under 2.5
28%
+6.2pp
66%
Over 2.5
72%
-6.2pp
53%
BTTS Yes
54%
-0.8pp
47%
BTTS No
46%
+0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME PSV Eindhoven EU Bookmakers 79%
Head to Head
AWAY Heerenveen EU Bookmakers 14%
+3% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -10%
2.69/0.82 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.93/2.66
+32% / +14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / -19%
60% Ball Possession 40%
22 Total Shots 9
10 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
470 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 280 · 76%
42.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.2
24.8 Crosses 12.8
0.7 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME PSV Eindhoven
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Heerenveen
2.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
2.41 xG 0.80
60% Ball Possession 40%
18 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
502 Passes 305
86% Pass Accuracy 79%
35 Box Touches 18
23 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
14.12.2024 Heerenveen Heerenveen 1-0 HT 0-0 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven HOL
25.04.2024 Heerenveen Heerenveen 0-8 HT 0-5 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven HOL
07.12.2023 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven 2-0 HT 1-0 Heerenveen Heerenveen HOL
21.05.2023 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven 3-3 HT 1-2 Heerenveen Heerenveen HOL
09.10.2022 Heerenveen Heerenveen 0-1 HT 0-0 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven HOL
20.02.2022 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven 3-1 HT 1-1 Heerenveen Heerenveen HOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME PSV Eindhoven
2-1
AWAY Heerenveen
2.72 xG 0.68
69% Ball Possession 31%
25 Total Shots 8
10 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 4
548 Passes 206
87% Pass Accuracy 73%
42 Box Touches 14
21 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

PSV Eindhoven squeezed past Heerenveen 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had PSV Eindhoven as the likeliest winner at 64%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (66%) came in.

On the day, PSV Eindhoven had 69% of the ball to Heerenveen's 31%, shots finished 25-8, expected goals 2.72 to 0.68 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold PSV Eindhoven's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, PSV Eindhoven had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.83 goals for PSV Eindhoven and 0.83 for Heerenveen.

What was the final score of PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen?

PSV Eindhoven 2-1 Heerenveen in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 08/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen?

Before kick-off our model rated a PSV Eindhoven win the most likely single outcome at about 64%, with the full match-result split PSV Eindhoven 64%, draw 20%, Heerenveen 16%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (PSV Eindhoven), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (PSV Eindhoven) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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