Heerenveen 1-0 PSV Eindhoven — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 14 Dec 2024

Heerenveen
1-0 HT 0-0
PSV Eindhoven
📅14/12/2024 · 🕒20:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-3 ✗
Netherlands - Eredivisie – 2024/2025

Heerenveen vs PSV Eindhoven Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
19%
7.78
Draw
21%
5.28
Away
60%
1.26
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
37%
2.96
Over 2.5
63%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.73
No
45%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
18%
6.8
2-3 Goals
37%
2.15
4-5 Goals
30%
2.4
6+ Goals
15%
4.63
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
15.35
1/2 EV+ ✗
9%
20.45
1/X
8%
22.55
X/1
6%
22.55
X/2
16%
3.72
X/X
7%
9.76
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
35%
1.43
2/X
6%
23.4
Value flag · 1/2 at 20.45 — our 9% vs market 2.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
19%
Home Win
10%
+9.1pp
21%
Draw
16%
+5.2pp
60%
Away Win
74%
-14.2pp
37%
Under 2.5
30%
+7.4pp
63%
Over 2.5
70%
-7.4pp
55%
BTTS Yes
54%
+1.5pp
45%
BTTS No
46%
-1.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Heerenveen v PSV Eindhoven — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Heerenveen EU Bookmakers 13%
Head to Head
AWAY PSV Eindhoven EU Bookmakers 79%
-5% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -1%
0.91/2.14 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.52/0.85
-1% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +19% / +10%
41% Ball Possession 59%
9 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 7
278 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 438 · 82%
18.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 37.6
13.4 Crosses 20.5
1.4 Yellow Cards 1.3

Heerenveen vs PSV Eindhoven Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Heerenveen
0W-2D-4L
AWAY PSV Eindhoven
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
0.76 xG 2.51
40% Ball Possession 60%
10 Total Shots 18
2 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 8
324 Passes 525
80% Pass Accuracy 86%
17 Box Touches 40
12 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
25.04.2024 Heerenveen Heerenveen 0-8 HT 0-5 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven HOL
07.12.2023 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven 2-0 HT 1-0 Heerenveen Heerenveen HOL
21.05.2023 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven 3-3 HT 1-2 Heerenveen Heerenveen HOL
09.10.2022 Heerenveen Heerenveen 0-1 HT 0-0 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven HOL
20.02.2022 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven 3-1 HT 1-1 Heerenveen Heerenveen HOL
28.11.2021 Heerenveen Heerenveen 1-1 HT 0-1 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven HOL

Heerenveen 1-0 PSV Eindhoven — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Heerenveen
1-0
AWAY PSV Eindhoven
1.07 xG 1.13
36% Ball Possession 64%
12 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 7
244 Passes 488
75% Pass Accuracy 86%
23 Box Touches 17
16 Crosses 28
POST-MATCH Heerenveen vs PSV Eindhoven
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Heerenveen nicked a narrow win over PSV Eindhoven 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

This one beat our numbers. PSV Eindhoven carried 60% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (63%), both teams to score (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Heerenveen had 36% of the ball to PSV Eindhoven's 64%, shots finished 12-14, expected goals 1.07 to 1.13.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, PSV Eindhoven led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Heerenveen and 3.00 for PSV Eindhoven.

What was the final score of Heerenveen vs PSV Eindhoven?

Heerenveen 1-0 PSV Eindhoven in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 14/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Heerenveen vs PSV Eindhoven?

Before kick-off our model rated an PSV Eindhoven win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split Heerenveen 19%, draw 21%, PSV Eindhoven 60%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (PSV Eindhoven) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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