Fortuna Sittard 3-2 RKC Waalwijk — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 14 Dec 2024

📅14/12/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.66
Draw
25%
3.64
Away
25%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.0
Over 2.5
52%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.75
No
46%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.65
2-3 Goals
40%
1.79
4-5 Goals
24%
3.14
6+ Goals
12%
10.75
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.16
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
5%
14.4
X/1
23%
4.09
X/2
10%
10.05
X/X
10%
5.31
2/1
7%
23.0
2/2
9%
7.58
2/X EV+ ✗
10%
15.2
Value flag · 2/X at 15.2 — our 10% vs market 3.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
56%
-5.7pp
25%
Draw
24%
+0.8pp
25%
Away Win
20%
+5.0pp
48%
Under 2.5
46%
+1.2pp
52%
Over 2.5
54%
-1.2pp
54%
BTTS Yes
53%
+0.5pp
46%
BTTS No
47%
-0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fortuna Sittard EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY RKC Waalwijk EU Bookmakers 23%
+26% / +26% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -9%
2.14/0.92 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/2.00
+60% / +32% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / -9%
55% Ball Possession 45%
17 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
385 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 272 · 73%
29.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.8
20.9 Crosses 16.5
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fortuna Sittard
2W-2D-2L
AWAY RKC Waalwijk
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.96 xG 1.51
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
344 Passes 311
79% Pass Accuracy 78%
22 Box Touches 20
21 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 2
24.02.2024 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk 0-1 HT 0-0 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard HOL
10.12.2023 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard 1-0 HT 0-0 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk HOL
17.02.2023 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk 3-1 HT 0-0 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard HOL
15.10.2022 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard 0-0 HT 0-0 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk HOL
23.01.2022 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk 2-1 HT 2-0 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard HOL
27.08.2021 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard 2-2 HT 1-1 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk HOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fortuna Sittard
3-2
AWAY RKC Waalwijk
3.05 xG 1.79
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 15
7 Shots on Target 7
12 Corners 7
307 Passes 256
77% Pass Accuracy 76%
35 Box Touches 21
20 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Fortuna Sittard vs RKC Waalwijk
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fortuna Sittard edged past RKC Waalwijk 3-2. Half-time: 3-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Fortuna Sittard as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Fortuna Sittard had 54% of the ball to RKC Waalwijk's 46%, shots finished 16-15, expected goals 3.05 to 1.79 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Fortuna Sittard's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Fortuna Sittard and 1.17 for RKC Waalwijk.

What was the final score of Fortuna Sittard vs RKC Waalwijk?

Fortuna Sittard 3-2 RKC Waalwijk in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 14/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fortuna Sittard vs RKC Waalwijk?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fortuna Sittard win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Fortuna Sittard 50%, draw 25%, RKC Waalwijk 25%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fortuna Sittard), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Fortuna Sittard) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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