Puebla 1-3 Pumas UNAM — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 8 Mar 2025

Puebla
1-3 HT 1-0
Pumas UNAM
📅08/03/2025 · 🕒06:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Mexico - Primera – 2024/2025

Puebla vs Pumas UNAM Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.84
Draw
28%
3.04
Away
38%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.62
Over 2.5
47%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.9
No
49%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2.45
2-3 Goals
40%
1.72
4-5 Goals
22%
4.31
6+ Goals
10%
23.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
8%
1/X
8%
X/1
9%
X/2
17%
X/X
14%
2/1
6%
2/2
13%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
32%
+1.9pp
29%
Draw
29%
-0.9pp
38%
Away Win
39%
-1.0pp
53%
Under 2.5
58%
-4.7pp
47%
Over 2.5
42%
+4.7pp
51%
BTTS Yes
49%
+2.0pp
49%
BTTS No
51%
-2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Puebla v Pumas UNAM — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Puebla EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Pumas UNAM EU Bookmakers 43%
-4% / -20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -12%
1.21/1.29 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.46/1.13
-5% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -23% / -10%
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
282 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 314 · 79%
18.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.9
18.5 Crosses 20.7
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.6

Puebla vs Pumas UNAM Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Puebla
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Pumas UNAM
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.05 xG 1.84
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
293 Passes 361
78% Pass Accuracy 82%
16 Box Touches 22
17 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
18.09.2024 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM 1-0 HT 0-0 Puebla Puebla MEK
11.02.2024 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM 3-0 HT 0-0 Puebla Puebla MEK
23.09.2023 Puebla Puebla 0-2 HT 0-1 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM MEK
05.03.2023 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM 2-4 HT 1-2 Puebla Puebla MEK
24.09.2022 Puebla Puebla 2-1 HT 2-0 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM MEK
09.04.2022 Puebla Puebla 2-2 HT 2-1 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM MEK

Puebla 1-3 Pumas UNAM — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Puebla
1-3
AWAY Pumas UNAM
1.09 xG 1.60
45% Ball Possession 55%
16 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 6
266 Passes 357
78% Pass Accuracy 84%
13 Box Touches 20
24 Crosses 24
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Puebla vs Pumas UNAM
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pumas UNAM got the better of Puebla 3-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (34% / 29% / 38%) promised a tight game; Pumas UNAM found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Puebla had 45% of the ball to Pumas UNAM's 55%, shots finished 16-15, expected goals 1.09 to 1.60.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Pumas UNAM led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Puebla and 1.83 for Pumas UNAM.

What was the final score of Puebla vs Pumas UNAM?

Puebla 1-3 Pumas UNAM in the Mexico - Primera on 08/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Puebla vs Pumas UNAM?

Before kick-off our model rated an Pumas UNAM win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Puebla 34%, draw 29%, Pumas UNAM 38%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Pumas UNAM), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Pumas UNAM) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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