Pumas UNAM 1-0 Puebla — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 18 Sep 2024

📅18/09/2024 · 🕒06:05 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.53
Draw
26%
3.94
Away
25%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.0
Over 2.5
51%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.85
No
52%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
26%
3.72
2-3 Goals
37%
1.82
4-5 Goals
25%
3.27
6+ Goals
12%
11.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.72 — our 26% vs market 21.7%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
17%
X/2
9%
X/X
11%
2/1
8%
2/2
12%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
61%
-12.1pp
25%
Draw
22%
+3.3pp
25%
Away Win
17%
+8.8pp
49%
Under 2.5
46%
+3.0pp
51%
Over 2.5
54%
-3.0pp
48%
BTTS Yes
50%
-1.7pp
52%
BTTS No
50%
+1.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pumas UNAM EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY Puebla EU Bookmakers 20%
-10% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +10%
1.76/0.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.98/2.00
+3% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / +5%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
363 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 270 · 76%
24.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.1
22.4 Crosses 15.4
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pumas UNAM
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Puebla
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.84 xG 1.12
49% Ball Possession 50%
17 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
304 Passes 311
80% Pass Accuracy 80%
22 Box Touches 17
17 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 3
11.02.2024 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM 3-0 HT 0-0 Puebla Puebla MEK
23.09.2023 Puebla Puebla 0-2 HT 0-1 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM MEK
05.03.2023 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM 2-4 HT 1-2 Puebla Puebla MEK
24.09.2022 Puebla Puebla 2-1 HT 2-0 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM MEK
09.04.2022 Puebla Puebla 2-2 HT 2-1 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM MEK
22.08.2021 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM 2-0 HT 0-0 Puebla Puebla MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pumas UNAM
1-0
AWAY Puebla
2.25 xG 0.35
72% Ball Possession 28%
23 Total Shots 6
7 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
609 Passes 175
89% Pass Accuracy 67%
29 Box Touches 6
26 Crosses 10
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Pumas UNAM vs Puebla
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pumas UNAM nicked a narrow win over Puebla 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Pumas UNAM as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Pumas UNAM had 72% of the ball to Puebla's 28%, shots finished 23-6, expected goals 2.25 to 0.35 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Pumas UNAM's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Pumas UNAM had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Pumas UNAM and 1.33 for Puebla.

What was the final score of Pumas UNAM vs Puebla?

Pumas UNAM 1-0 Puebla in the Mexico - Primera on 18/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pumas UNAM vs Puebla?

Before kick-off our model rated a Pumas UNAM win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Pumas UNAM 49%, draw 25%, Puebla 25%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Pumas UNAM), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Pumas UNAM) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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