Pachuca 2-2 Toluca — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 18 Sep 2024

Pachuca
2-2 HT 0-1
Toluca
📅18/09/2024 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Mexico - Primera – 2024/2025

Pachuca vs Toluca Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.47
Draw
30%
3.45
Away
32%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
2.03
Over 2.5
46%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.6
No
51%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.87
2-3 Goals
40%
1.83
4-5 Goals
22%
3.18
6+ Goals
9%
10.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.87 — our 29% vs market 20.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
19%
X/2
15%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
12%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
37%
+1.1pp
29%
Draw
26%
+3.5pp
32%
Away Win
37%
-4.8pp
54%
Under 2.5
45%
+8.6pp
46%
Over 2.5
55%
-8.6pp
49%
BTTS Yes
58%
-9.7pp
51%
BTTS No
42%
+9.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Pachuca v Toluca — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pachuca EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Toluca EU Bookmakers 40%
+1% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -4%
1.27/1.15 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.21/1.41
+4% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / -12%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
301 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 317 · 79%
21.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.3
19.6 Crosses 16.2
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.6

Pachuca vs Toluca Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pachuca
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Toluca
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.58 xG 1.95
42% Ball Possession 58%
16 Total Shots 13
7 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
264 Passes 391
77% Pass Accuracy 82%
21 Box Touches 22
18 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
31.03.2024 Pachuca Pachuca 2-3 HT 1-3 Toluca Toluca MEK
03.09.2023 Toluca Toluca 5-0 HT 2-0 Pachuca Pachuca MEK
20.02.2023 Pachuca Pachuca 1-2 HT 0-1 Toluca Toluca MEK
31.10.2022 Pachuca Pachuca 3-1 HT 1-1 Toluca Toluca MEK
28.10.2022 Toluca Toluca 1-5 HT 0-4 Pachuca Pachuca MEK
28.08.2022 Toluca Toluca 1-4 HT 0-2 Pachuca Pachuca MEK

Pachuca 2-2 Toluca — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pachuca
2-2
AWAY Toluca
1.24 xG 1.83
43% Ball Possession 57%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 7
274 Passes 401
84% Pass Accuracy 84%
17 Box Touches 24
14 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Pachuca vs Toluca
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pachuca and Toluca couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match split (38% / 29% / 32%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Pachuca had 43% of the ball to Toluca's 57%, shots finished 10-12, expected goals 1.24 to 1.83.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Pachuca and 2.17 for Toluca.

What was the final score of Pachuca vs Toluca?

Pachuca 2-2 Toluca in the Mexico - Primera on 18/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pachuca vs Toluca?

Before kick-off our model rated a Pachuca win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Pachuca 38%, draw 29%, Toluca 32%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Pachuca) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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