Lech Poznan 3-1 Stal Mielec — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 8 Mar 2025

📅08/03/2025 · 🕒22:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.49
Draw
25%
3.94
Away
20%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.0
Over 2.5
53%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.88
No
52%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.45
2-3 Goals
38%
1.76
4-5 Goals EV+ ✓
27%
3.14
6+ Goals
11%
10.95
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.14 — our 27% vs market 24.9%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1.87
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
5%
16.15
X/1
18%
3.93
X/2
7%
11.8
X/X
13%
5.79
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
22.1
2/2
9%
9.85
2/X
7%
18.35
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.1 — our 8% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
62%
-7.7pp
25%
Draw
22%
+3.3pp
20%
Away Win
16%
+4.4pp
47%
Under 2.5
46%
+0.4pp
53%
Over 2.5
54%
-0.4pp
48%
BTTS Yes
49%
-0.8pp
52%
BTTS No
51%
+0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lech Poznan EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Stal Mielec EU Bookmakers 20%
-1% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -13%
1.86/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.96/1.72
+10% / +21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / -6%
58% Ball Possession 42%
18 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
448 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 270 · 72%
29.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.2
22.3 Crosses 15.9
1.4 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lech Poznan
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Stal Mielec
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.61 xG 0.65
59% Ball Possession 41%
17 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 5
434 Passes 275
83% Pass Accuracy 76%
30 Box Touches 14
22 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 2
30.08.2024 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec 0-2 HT 0-2 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan POL
01.04.2024 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec 0-0 HT 0-0 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan POL
23.09.2023 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 2-1 HT 2-1 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec POL
27.01.2023 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec 0-0 HT 0-0 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan POL
16.07.2022 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 0-2 HT 0-1 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec POL
24.04.2022 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 3-1 HT 2-1 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec POL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lech Poznan
3-1
AWAY Stal Mielec
3.13 xG 0.55
59% Ball Possession 41%
24 Total Shots 10
14 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 6
477 Passes 311
89% Pass Accuracy 85%
29 Box Touches 11
14 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Lech Poznan vs Stal Mielec
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lech Poznan saw off Stal Mielec 3-1. Half-time: 2-1.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Lech Poznan as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Lech Poznan had 59% of the ball to Stal Mielec's 41%, shots finished 24-10, expected goals 3.13 to 0.55.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lech Poznan had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Lech Poznan and 0.67 for Stal Mielec.

What was the final score of Lech Poznan vs Stal Mielec?

Lech Poznan 3-1 Stal Mielec in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 08/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lech Poznan vs Stal Mielec?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lech Poznan win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Lech Poznan 55%, draw 25%, Stal Mielec 20%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lech Poznan), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Lech Poznan) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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