Penafiel 3-2 Alverca — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 8 Mar 2025

Penafiel
3-2
Alverca
📅08/03/2025 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Portugal - 2nd Division – 2024/2025

Penafiel vs Alverca Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
2.99
Draw
31%
3.11
Away
40%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.68
Over 2.5
46%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.85
No
49%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2.65
2-3 Goals
41%
1.71
4-5 Goals
21%
3.93
6+ Goals
9%
18.7
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
1/2
10%
1/X
10%
X/1
14%
X/2
9%
X/X
16%
2/1
7%
2/2
21%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
30%
+0.0pp
31%
Draw
28%
+2.4pp
40%
Away Win
42%
-2.4pp
54%
Under 2.5
56%
-1.9pp
46%
Over 2.5
44%
+1.9pp
51%
BTTS Yes
50%
+0.8pp
49%
BTTS No
50%
-0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Penafiel v Alverca — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Penafiel EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Alverca EU Bookmakers 46%
+15% / +15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -9%
1.25/1.38 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.40/1.29
+14% / +41% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +23% / +3%
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
261 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 341 · 79%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
17.3 Crosses 31.7
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.0

Penafiel vs Alverca Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Penafiel
0W-1D-0L
AWAY Alverca
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.85 xG 2.61
34% Ball Possession 66%
7 Total Shots 21
2 Shots on Target 9
4 Corners 11
145 Passes 312
73% Pass Accuracy 84%
13 Crosses 30
5 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
12.10.2024 Alverca Alverca 2-2 HT 1-1 Penafiel Penafiel POR2

Penafiel 3-2 Alverca — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Penafiel
3-2
AWAY Alverca
57% Ball Possession 43%
19 Total Shots 5
4 Shots on Target 3
12 Corners 2
POST-MATCH Penafiel vs Alverca
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Penafiel nicked a narrow win over Alverca 3-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 30% / 31% / 40% — and on the day Penafiel made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Penafiel had 57% of the ball to Alverca's 43%, shots finished 19-5.

What was the final score of Penafiel vs Alverca?

Penafiel 3-2 Alverca in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 08/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Penafiel vs Alverca?

Before kick-off our model rated an Alverca win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Penafiel 30%, draw 31%, Alverca 40%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Alverca), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Alverca) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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