Vukovar 0-1 Rijeka — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 8 Mar 2026

📅08/03/2026 · 🕒19:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
3.08
Draw
25%
3.18
Away
45%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
1.74
Over 2.5
54%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
60%
1.81
No
40%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2.8
2-3 Goals
39%
1.7
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
25%
3.7
6+ Goals
12%
16.4
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.7 — our 25% vs market 20.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
10%
1/X
6%
X/1
11%
X/2
10%
X/X
9%
2/1
6%
2/2
24%
2/X
11%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
29%
+1.3pp
25%
Draw
28%
-2.4pp
45%
Away Win
43%
+1.3pp
46%
Under 2.5
54%
-8.1pp
54%
Over 2.5
46%
+8.1pp
60%
BTTS Yes
51%
+8.4pp
40%
BTTS No
49%
-8.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vukovar EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Rijeka EU Bookmakers 48%
+14% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -19%
1.64/1.58 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.25/1.05
+76% / -19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / +3%
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
299 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 330 · 78%
23.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.5
25.7 Crosses 18.5
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vukovar
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Rijeka
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
1.12 xG 2.48
32% Ball Possession 68%
8 Total Shots 22
2 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 14
150 Passes 408
67% Pass Accuracy 85%
14 Box Touches 36
14 Crosses 30
2 Yellow Cards 2
06.12.2025 Rijeka Rijeka 3-1 HT 2-0 Vukovar Vukovar HIR
22.09.2025 Vukovar Vukovar 3-2 HT 1-2 Rijeka Rijeka HIR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vukovar
0-1
AWAY Rijeka
0.61 xG 1.72
52% Ball Possession 48%
9 Total Shots 8
1 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 1
286 Passes 265
77% Pass Accuracy 76%
17 Box Touches 23
25 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Vukovar vs Rijeka
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Rijeka nicked a narrow win over Vukovar 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Rijeka as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — both teams to score (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Vukovar had 52% of the ball to Rijeka's 48%, shots finished 9-8, expected goals 0.61 to 1.72.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Vukovar and 2.50 for Rijeka.

What was the final score of Vukovar vs Rijeka?

Vukovar 0-1 Rijeka in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 08/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vukovar vs Rijeka?

Before kick-off our model rated an Rijeka win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Vukovar 30%, draw 25%, Rijeka 45%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Rijeka) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Rijeka) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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