Sutton United 1-0 Rochdale — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - National League, 8 Apr 2025

📅08/04/2025 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.67
Draw
30%
3.28
Away
37%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5 OUR CALL
64%
1.8
Over 2.5
36%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.75
No
58%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
33%
3.01
2-3 Goals
41%
1.75
4-5 Goals
18%
3.59
6+ Goals
8%
14.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.01 — our 33% vs market 26.5%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
4.46
1/2
6%
27.5
1/X
13%
13.55
X/1
14%
6.29
X/2
12%
5.24
X/X
10%
4.56
2/1
6%
32.0
2/2
19%
3.37
2/X
7%
13.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 64%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
34%
-0.9pp
30%
Draw
27%
+2.6pp
37%
Away Win
39%
-1.9pp
64%
Under 2.5
52%
+11.9pp
36%
Over 2.5
48%
-11.9pp
42%
BTTS Yes
53%
-10.8pp
58%
BTTS No
47%
+10.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sutton United EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Rochdale EU Bookmakers 43%
-6% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -6%
1.35/1.46 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.45/1.27
-1% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / +0%
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
130 · 61% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 192 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sutton United
2W-0D-2L
AWAY Rochdale
1.75 Avg Goals (FT) 1.25
1.19 xG 1.25
38% Ball Possession 62%
10 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 7
136 Passes 283
61% Pass Accuracy 75%
18 Box Touches 23
17 Crosses 23
1 Yellow Cards 1
09.11.2024 Rochdale Rochdale 2-1 HT 1-1 Sutton United Sutton United İBSL
19.11.2022 Sutton United Sutton United 1-0 HT 1-0 Rochdale Rochdale İN2
05.03.2022 Sutton United Sutton United 3-0 HT 2-0 Rochdale Rochdale İN2
23.10.2021 Rochdale Rochdale 3-2 HT 1-0 Sutton United Sutton United İN2
POST-MATCH Sutton United vs Rochdale
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sutton United nicked a narrow win over Rochdale 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (33% / 30% / 37%) promised a tight game; Sutton United found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (64%), no to both teams scoring (58%), and both reads landed as well.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece. Those games averaged 1.75 goals for Sutton United and 1.25 for Rochdale.

What was the final score of Sutton United vs Rochdale?

Sutton United 1-0 Rochdale in the England - National League on 08/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sutton United vs Rochdale?

Before kick-off our model rated an Rochdale win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Sutton United 33%, draw 30%, Rochdale 37%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Rochdale) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Rochdale) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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