Peterborough United 1-2 Birmingham — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 8 Apr 2025

Peterborough United
1-2 HT 1-2
Birmingham
📅08/04/2025 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
England - 1st Division – 2024/2025

Peterborough United vs Birmingham Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
4.04
Draw
25%
3.8
Away
46%
1.68
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
2.15
Over 2.5
46%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.68
No
55%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
4.01
2-3 Goals
41%
1.84
4-5 Goals
20%
2.91
6+ Goals
10%
8.84
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.01 — our 29% vs market 19.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
7.54
1/2
7%
21.1
1/X
6%
16.0
X/1 EV+ ✗
12%
9.99
X/2
15%
4.32
X/X
11%
5.94
2/1
5%
35.0
2/2
24%
2.11
2/X
8%
14.5
Value flag · X/1 at 9.99 — our 12% vs market 7.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
22%
+7.2pp
25%
Draw
23%
+2.4pp
46%
Away Win
55%
-9.6pp
54%
Under 2.5
43%
+11.0pp
46%
Over 2.5
57%
-11.0pp
45%
BTTS Yes
56%
-10.7pp
55%
BTTS No
44%
+10.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Peterborough United v Birmingham — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Peterborough United EU Bookmakers 25%
Head to Head
AWAY Birmingham EU Bookmakers 60%
+11% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -11%
1.95/1.66 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.19/0.78
+84% / +29% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -20% / -5%
42% Ball Possession 58%
8 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
240 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 346 · 75%
21.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.9
11.7 Crosses 18.6
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.8

Peterborough United vs Birmingham Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Peterborough United
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Birmingham
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.29 xG 1.20
45% Ball Possession 55%
8 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
278 Passes 345
75% Pass Accuracy 76%
14 Box Touches 19
10 Crosses 26
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
28.09.2024 Birmingham Birmingham 3-2 HT 1-2 Peterborough United Peterborough United İN1
29.07.2023 Peterborough United Peterborough United 3-2 HT 3-1 Birmingham Birmingham HAZ
25.01.2022 Birmingham Birmingham 2-2 HT 0-1 Peterborough United Peterborough United İNCL
18.09.2021 Peterborough United Peterborough United 3-0 HT 2-0 Birmingham Birmingham İNCL
23.02.2013 Peterborough United Peterborough United 0-2 HT 0-1 Birmingham Birmingham İNCL
01.09.2012 Birmingham Birmingham 1-0 HT 1-0 Peterborough United Peterborough United İNCL

Peterborough United 1-2 Birmingham — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Peterborough United
1-2
AWAY Birmingham
0.37 xG 1.31
39% Ball Possession 61%
5 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
269 Passes 488
76% Pass Accuracy 84%
20 Box Touches 24
16 Crosses 13
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Peterborough United vs Birmingham
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Birmingham nicked a narrow win over Peterborough United 2-1 away from home.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Birmingham as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Peterborough United had 39% of the ball to Birmingham's 61%, shots finished 5-14, expected goals 0.37 to 1.31.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Birmingham led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Peterborough United and 1.67 for Birmingham.

What was the final score of Peterborough United vs Birmingham?

Peterborough United 1-2 Birmingham in the England - 1st Division on 08/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Peterborough United vs Birmingham?

Before kick-off our model rated an Birmingham win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Peterborough United 29%, draw 25%, Birmingham 46%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Birmingham) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Birmingham) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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