Birmingham 3-2 Peterborough United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 28 Sep 2024

📅28/09/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.53
Draw
24%
4.08
Away
25%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.33
Over 2.5
54%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.66
No
46%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.87
2-3 Goals
39%
1.94
4-5 Goals
25%
2.8
6+ Goals
13%
7.51
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1.88
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
5%
15.7
X/1
16%
3.93
X/2
7%
11.65
X/X
13%
6.47
2/1 EV+ ✓
9%
20.35
2/2
12%
8.28
2/X
6%
16.15
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.35 — our 9% vs market 2.5%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
61%
-10.4pp
24%
Draw
21%
+2.6pp
25%
Away Win
18%
+7.7pp
46%
Under 2.5
39%
+7.0pp
54%
Over 2.5
61%
-7.0pp
54%
BTTS Yes
56%
-2.4pp
46%
BTTS No
44%
+2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Birmingham EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY Peterborough United EU Bookmakers 21%
+7% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +2%
1.50/0.55 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.75/1.72
+2% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / -10%
53% Ball Possession 47%
18 Total Shots 10
8 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 4
315 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 273 · 69%
30.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.0
24.4 Crosses 20.3
1.4 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Birmingham
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Peterborough United
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.27 xG 1.46
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
226 Passes 314
70% Pass Accuracy 76%
19 Box Touches 16
23 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 2
29.07.2023 Peterborough United Peterborough United 3-2 HT 3-1 Birmingham Birmingham HAZ
25.01.2022 Birmingham Birmingham 2-2 HT 0-1 Peterborough United Peterborough United İNCL
18.09.2021 Peterborough United Peterborough United 3-0 HT 2-0 Birmingham Birmingham İNCL
23.02.2013 Peterborough United Peterborough United 0-2 HT 0-1 Birmingham Birmingham İNCL
01.09.2012 Birmingham Birmingham 1-0 HT 1-0 Peterborough United Peterborough United İNCL
02.01.2012 Peterborough United Peterborough United 1-1 HT 1-0 Birmingham Birmingham İNCL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Birmingham
3-2
AWAY Peterborough United
1.05 xG 0.94
70% Ball Possession 30%
12 Total Shots 5
4 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 6
583 Passes 206
88% Pass Accuracy 71%
20 Box Touches 11
32 Crosses 9
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Birmingham vs Peterborough United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Birmingham edged past Peterborough United 3-2. It was 1-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Birmingham as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Birmingham had 70% of the ball to Peterborough United's 30%, shots finished 12-5, expected goals 1.05 to 0.94.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Birmingham and 1.50 for Peterborough United.

What was the final score of Birmingham vs Peterborough United?

Birmingham 3-2 Peterborough United in the England - 1st Division on 28/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Birmingham vs Peterborough United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Birmingham win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Birmingham 51%, draw 24%, Peterborough United 25%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Birmingham), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Birmingham) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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