Crawley Town 0-2 Bolton Wanderers — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 28 Sep 2024

📅28/09/2024 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
3.87
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
49%
1.74
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.03
Over 2.5
49%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.7
No
55%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.83
2-3 Goals
40%
1.83
4-5 Goals
21%
3.2
6+ Goals
10%
10.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.83 — our 29% vs market 21.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
6.59
1/2
9%
22.7
1/X
6%
14.35
X/1
11%
9.0
X/2
12%
4.21
X/X
13%
5.21
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
28%
2.28
2/X
6%
13.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
22%
+4.2pp
25%
Draw
25%
+0.3pp
49%
Away Win
53%
-4.5pp
51%
Under 2.5
45%
+5.6pp
49%
Over 2.5
55%
-5.6pp
45%
BTTS Yes
55%
-9.5pp
55%
BTTS No
45%
+9.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Crawley Town EU Bookmakers 26%
Head to Head
AWAY Bolton Wanderers EU Bookmakers 57%
+21% / +21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +4%
0.88/2.29 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.03/0.81
+4% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / +28%
43% Ball Possession 57%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
221 · 66% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 325 · 72%
17.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.2
10.1 Crosses 17.5
2.7 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Crawley Town
2W-0D-1L
AWAY Bolton Wanderers
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.11 xG 2.35
43% Ball Possession 57%
12 Total Shots 18
3 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 4
210 Passes 335
63% Pass Accuracy 78%
18 Box Touches 34
12 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 1
08.05.2021 Crawley Town Crawley Town 1-4 HT 0-2 Bolton Wanderers Bolton Wanderers İN2
02.01.2021 Bolton Wanderers Bolton Wanderers 0-1 HT 0-0 Crawley Town Crawley Town İN2
28.08.2012 Crawley Town Crawley Town 2-1 HT 0-1 Bolton Wanderers Bolton Wanderers İNLK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Crawley Town
0-2
AWAY Bolton Wanderers
0.29 xG 0.92
68% Ball Possession 32%
9 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 8
6 Corners 4
460 Passes 165
84% Pass Accuracy 63%
13 Box Touches 26
21 Crosses 8
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Crawley Town vs Bolton Wanderers
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bolton Wanderers saw off Crawley Town 2-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

As we said in the preview, our model had Bolton Wanderers as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged no to both teams scoring (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Crawley Town had 68% of the ball to Bolton Wanderers's 32%, shots finished 9-13, expected goals 0.29 to 0.92.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Crawley Town had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Crawley Town and 1.67 for Bolton Wanderers.

What was the final score of Crawley Town vs Bolton Wanderers?

Crawley Town 0-2 Bolton Wanderers in the England - 1st Division on 28/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Crawley Town vs Bolton Wanderers?

Before kick-off our model rated an Bolton Wanderers win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Crawley Town 26%, draw 25%, Bolton Wanderers 49%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bolton Wanderers), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Bolton Wanderers) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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