Bahia 1-3 Nacional de Football — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Copa Libertadores, 8 May 2025

Bahia
1-3 HT 0-0
Nacional de Football
📅08/05/2025 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Copa Libertadores – 2026

Bahia vs Nacional de Football Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.57
Draw
25%
3.8
Away
23%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.03
Over 2.5
48%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.76
No
52%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.63
2-3 Goals
39%
1.8
4-5 Goals
23%
3.1
6+ Goals
10%
10.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.63 — our 28% vs market 21.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
2.02
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
5%
15.4
X/1
16%
4.13
X/2
6%
10.8
X/X
13%
5.8
2/1
8%
22.0
2/2
12%
8.63
2/X
6%
17.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
59%
-6.7pp
25%
Draw
23%
+1.7pp
23%
Away Win
18%
+4.9pp
52%
Under 2.5
45%
+6.1pp
48%
Over 2.5
55%
-6.1pp
48%
BTTS Yes
53%
-4.8pp
52%
BTTS No
47%
+4.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Bahia v Nacional de Football — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bahia EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Nacional de Football EU Bookmakers 21%
+31% / +31% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +1%
1.46/0.36 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.98/1.64
-45% / – Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +34% / -20%
60% Ball Possession 40%
15 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
405 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 237 · 72%
27.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.0
25.0 Crosses 16.1
1.0 Yellow Cards 3.2

Bahia vs Nacional de Football Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bahia
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Nacional de Football
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
0.51 xG 0.37
56% Ball Possession 44%
11 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 6
402 Passes 286
85% Pass Accuracy 79%
21 Box Touches 18
9 Crosses 25
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
10.04.2025 Nacional de Football Nacional de Football 0-1 HT 0-0 Bahia Bahia LKU
POST-MATCH Bahia vs Nacional de Football
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nacional de Football beat Bahia 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Bahia at 53%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

What was the final score of Bahia vs Nacional de Football?

Bahia 1-3 Nacional de Football in the Copa Libertadores on 08/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bahia vs Nacional de Football?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bahia win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Bahia 53%, draw 25%, Nacional de Football 23%. The final score 1-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Bahia) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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