Atletico Goianiense 1-2 Atletico Paranaense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 8 Jul 2024

Atletico Goianiense
1-2 HT 0-0
Atletico Paranaense
📅08/07/2024 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Brazil - Serie A – 2024

Atletico Goianiense vs Atletico Paranaense Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
1.9
Draw
31%
3.28
Away
28%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.67
Over 2.5
41%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.95
No
53%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
2.73
2-3 Goals
38%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
4.29
6+ Goals
10%
21.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.73 — our 33% vs market 30.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
2.62
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
10%
14.15
X/1
16%
4.17
X/2
9%
7.8
X/X
15%
4.2
2/1
8%
27.5
2/2
11%
6.33
2/X
7%
14.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
49%
-8.2pp
32%
Draw
27%
+4.2pp
28%
Away Win
24%
+4.0pp
59%
Under 2.5
56%
+2.7pp
41%
Over 2.5
44%
-2.7pp
47%
BTTS Yes
47%
-0.3pp
53%
BTTS No
53%
+0.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Atletico Goianiense v Atletico Paranaense — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atletico Goianiense EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico Paranaense EU Bookmakers 27%
-20% / -24% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -1%
1.41/0.92 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.54
-35% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / -3%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
363 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 334 · 79%
25.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.7
26.3 Crosses 17.5
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.5

Atletico Goianiense vs Atletico Paranaense Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atletico Goianiense
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Atletico Paranaense
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.21 xG 1.39
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
401 Passes 306
83% Pass Accuracy 80%
18 Box Touches 17
20 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
10.11.2022 Atletico Goianiense Atletico Goianiense 1-1 HT 0-0 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense BR1
21.07.2022 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 4-1 HT 2-0 Atletico Goianiense Atletico Goianiense BR1
07.10.2021 Atletico Goianiense Atletico Goianiense 0-2 HT 0-1 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense BR1
05.08.2021 Atletico Goianiense Atletico Goianiense 2-2 HT 0-1 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense BRK
28.07.2021 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 2-1 HT 0-0 Atletico Goianiense Atletico Goianiense BRK
21.06.2021 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 2-1 HT 1-1 Atletico Goianiense Atletico Goianiense BR1

Atletico Goianiense 1-2 Atletico Paranaense — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atletico Goianiense
1-2
AWAY Atletico Paranaense
0.66 xG 1.03
43% Ball Possession 57%
12 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 11
207 Passes 302
70% Pass Accuracy 76%
25 Box Touches 26
16 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Atletico Goianiense vs Atletico Paranaense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico Paranaense nicked a narrow win over Atletico Goianiense 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Atletico Goianiense at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Atletico Goianiense had 43% of the ball to Atletico Paranaense's 57%, shots finished 12-17, expected goals 0.66 to 1.03.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atletico Paranaense led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Atletico Goianiense and 2.17 for Atletico Paranaense.

What was the final score of Atletico Goianiense vs Atletico Paranaense?

Atletico Goianiense 1-2 Atletico Paranaense in the Brazil - Serie A on 08/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atletico Goianiense vs Atletico Paranaense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atletico Goianiense win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Atletico Goianiense 41%, draw 32%, Atletico Paranaense 28%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Atletico Goianiense) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
BR1 More Brazil - Serie A
8 Jul 2024
00:00 Internacional vs Vasco da Gama Analysis →
00:30 Palmeiras vs Bahia Analysis →
00:30 Vitoria vs Criciuma Analysis →
02:30 Botafogo vs Atletico Mineiro Analysis →