Palmeiras 2-0 Bahia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 8 Jul 2024

Palmeiras
2-0 HT 1-0
Bahia
📅08/07/2024 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Brazil - Serie A – 2024

Palmeiras vs Bahia Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.66
Draw
27%
3.8
Away
24%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.15
Over 2.5
50%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.68
No
53%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
24%
4.11
2-3 Goals
42%
1.85
4-5 Goals
24%
3.06
6+ Goals
10%
9.69
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.11 — our 24% vs market 19.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
2.16
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
8%
14.85
X/1
10%
4.04
X/2
8%
9.35
X/X
15%
5.74
2/1
9%
21.4
2/2
9%
6.81
2/X
5%
15.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
56%
-6.5pp
27%
Draw
23%
+4.3pp
24%
Away Win
21%
+2.3pp
50%
Under 2.5
43%
+7.0pp
50%
Over 2.5
57%
-7.0pp
47%
BTTS Yes
56%
-8.0pp
53%
BTTS No
44%
+8.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Palmeiras v Bahia — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Palmeiras EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Bahia EU Bookmakers 25%
-3% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -1%
1.71/0.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/1.40
-4% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / -17%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
354 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 283 · 75%
25.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.9
24.3 Crosses 16.6
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.4

Palmeiras vs Bahia Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Palmeiras
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Bahia
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.34 xG 1.01
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 7
381 Passes 290
84% Pass Accuracy 80%
18 Box Touches 18
18 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
29.10.2023 Palmeiras Palmeiras 1-0 HT 1-0 Bahia Bahia BR1
22.06.2023 Bahia Bahia 1-0 HT 0-0 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
13.10.2021 Bahia Bahia 0-0 HT 0-0 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
28.06.2021 Palmeiras Palmeiras 3-2 HT 1-1 Bahia Bahia BR1
13.12.2020 Palmeiras Palmeiras 3-0 HT 3-0 Bahia Bahia BR1
30.08.2020 Bahia Bahia 1-1 HT 0-0 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1

Palmeiras 2-0 Bahia — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Palmeiras
2-0
AWAY Bahia
0.86 xG 1.93
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 3
344 Passes 466
86% Pass Accuracy 89%
13 Box Touches 11
23 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Palmeiras vs Bahia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Palmeiras saw off Bahia 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Palmeiras as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Palmeiras had 44% of the ball to Bahia's 56%, shots finished 12-13, expected goals 0.86 to 1.93 — on chances, Bahia could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Palmeiras had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Palmeiras and 0.67 for Bahia.

What was the final score of Palmeiras vs Bahia?

Palmeiras 2-0 Bahia in the Brazil - Serie A on 08/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Palmeiras vs Bahia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Palmeiras win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Palmeiras 49%, draw 27%, Bahia 24%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Palmeiras), BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Palmeiras) ✓ BTTS No
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